基于可拓评价模型的渤海海域钻井平台拖航安全评价

发布时间：2018-07-27 15:57

【摘要】：随着海洋石油产业的发展,钻井平台事故逐渐增多。历史事故表明,自升式钻井平台拖航事故往往带来巨额的财产损失和重大的人员伤亡。渤海海域从事石油勘探与开采的自升式钻井平台较多,平台拖航存在一定风险。传统的拖航作业通航安全评估报告无法定量地反映某次拖航的安全程度,因此有必要对拖航安全进行定量评价。本文运用可拓评价模型对某次拖航的安全性进行定量评价。首先,全面分析拖航安全影响因素,按照环境因素、船舶及设备因素、人员及管理因素的分类方法,对24个影响拖航安全的因素进行逐一地分析,并给出每个因素的量化方法。随后,根据专家调查问卷,运用综合回归法,筛选出12个指标,构成评价指标体系,明确等级划分和评价标准。然后,正式将可拓评价模型引入到拖航安全评价中,建立拖航安全评价物元,确定经典域、节域及待评物元,运用层次分析法和可拓赋权法分别计算权重,构成组合权重,确定关联度计算方法与安全等级评定规则,从而完成拖航安全可拓评价模型的建立。最后,选取3个拖航实例,通过实例计算、纵向对比与横向对比,对评价模型进行验证。评价结果分别给出了 3个拖航实例所处的安全等级以及所偏向的安全等级,并且得到了 3个拖航实例的安全性排序,通过纵向对比与横向对比,分析得出以上评价结果均与实际情况相符。最终,本文得出以下结论:拖航安全可拓评价模型具有可行性和有效性;拖航安全影响因素需全面分析,构建评价指标体系需删除不重要的指标;组合权重做到了主客观结合以及动静态结合;可拓评价的核心在于经典域、节域及关联函数的确定。
[Abstract]:With the development of offshore oil industry, drilling platform accidents are increasing gradually. Historical accidents show that towing accidents of jack-up drilling platforms often bring huge property losses and heavy casualties. There are more jack-up drilling platforms engaged in oil exploration and exploitation in Bohai Sea area, and there are some risks in platform towing. The traditional safety assessment report of towing operation can not quantitatively reflect the safety degree of a certain tug, so it is necessary to evaluate the towing safety quantitatively. In this paper, the extension evaluation model is used to quantitatively evaluate the safety of a towing. Firstly, the factors affecting the safety of towing are comprehensively analyzed. According to the classification methods of environmental factors, ship and equipment factors, personnel and management factors, 24 factors affecting the safety of towing are analyzed one by one, and the quantitative methods of each factor are given. Then, according to the expert questionnaire and the comprehensive regression method, 12 indexes were selected, which constituted the evaluation index system, and defined the classification and evaluation criteria. Then, the extension evaluation model is formally introduced into the tug safety evaluation, and the matter element of the tug safety assessment is established, the classical domain, the segment domain and the subject element to be evaluated are determined, and the weights are calculated by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the extension weighting method, respectively, to form the combined weight. The calculation method of correlation degree and the rules of safety grade evaluation are determined, and the extension evaluation model of towing safety is established. Finally, three towing examples are selected, and the evaluation model is verified by example calculation, longitudinal contrast and horizontal contrast. The evaluation results show the safety levels of the three towing cases and the biased safety levels, and obtain the safety ranking of the three towing cases, and compare them vertically and horizontally. The analysis shows that the above evaluation results are consistent with the actual situation. Finally, this paper draws the following conclusions: the towing safety extension evaluation model is feasible and effective, the influencing factors of towing safety need to be comprehensively analyzed, the evaluation index system should be deleted; The combination weight combines subjective and objective as well as dynamic and static, and the core of extension evaluation lies in the determination of classical domain, segment domain and correlation function.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U698;U675.9

【参考文献】