基于情报信息的空防安全威胁评估回归模型研究
发布时间：2018-08-15 12:03
【摘要】：空防安全威胁传统评估方法主要是基于情报信息形成专家或领导意见的定性分析方法,既缺乏威胁评估理论模型,又缺乏有效性的实证分析.首先依据定性分析考量空防安全事件威胁的维度,通过对情报信息要素进行分解,构建了空防安全威胁定量评估的指标体系;其次,以劫炸机案例模拟威胁情报信息,应用多元线性回归的方法,采用向后删除法对变量进行优选,建立了基于威胁主体属性、犯罪动机、威胁手段、机场、敏感时期五项情报信息指标的威胁评估回归模型.该模型的拟合检验结果表明,基于情报信息的威胁评估与空防安全专家评估意见具有很好的一致性.
[Abstract]:The traditional assessment methods of air security threats are mainly qualitative analysis methods based on intelligence information forming experts'or leaders' opinions. It lacks both a theoretical model of threat assessment and an effective empirical analysis. Firstly, according to qualitative analysis, the dimension of air defense security threat is considered, and the index system of quantitative assessment of air defense security threat is constructed by decomposing the elements of intelligence information; secondly, the threat intelligence information is simulated by the case of hijacking aircraft. By using the method of multiple linear regression and backward deleting, the regression model of threat evaluation is established based on the attributes of threat subject, criminal motive, threat means, airport and sensitive period. The fitting test results of the model show that the threat assessment based on intelligence information is in good agreement with the expert assessment of air defense security.
【作者单位】： 中国民航飞行学院计算机学院;中国民航飞行学院空防安全研究室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(61079022)资助项目
【分类号】：V328;O212.1
，
本文编号：2184147
[Abstract]:The traditional assessment methods of air security threats are mainly qualitative analysis methods based on intelligence information forming experts'or leaders' opinions. It lacks both a theoretical model of threat assessment and an effective empirical analysis. Firstly, according to qualitative analysis, the dimension of air defense security threat is considered, and the index system of quantitative assessment of air defense security threat is constructed by decomposing the elements of intelligence information; secondly, the threat intelligence information is simulated by the case of hijacking aircraft. By using the method of multiple linear regression and backward deleting, the regression model of threat evaluation is established based on the attributes of threat subject, criminal motive, threat means, airport and sensitive period. The fitting test results of the model show that the threat assessment based on intelligence information is in good agreement with the expert assessment of air defense security.
【作者单位】： 中国民航飞行学院计算机学院;中国民航飞行学院空防安全研究室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(61079022)资助项目
【分类号】：V328;O212.1
，
本文编号：2184147
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