铁路突发事件应急情景构建与动态推演技术研究
发布时间：2018-09-06 14:26
【摘要】：近年来,铁路突发事件时有发生,对铁路运输生产和经济运行造成了巨大损失。随着铁路系统新技术及新装备的应用,系统之间的关联度、耦合性和复杂性也不断提高,加剧了铁路突发事件应对的紧迫性和复杂性。基于预案管理的传统应急管理模式在铁路突发事件的应急中遇到了前所未有的挑战。铁路应急管理正在由预案管理向情景管理转变。深入研究基于情景应对的铁路应急决策模型,构建铁路突发事件的情景描述体系和情景重构模型理论方法具有重要的现实意义和应用价值。本文在总结对国内外相关研究成果的基础上,以铁路突发事件情景的组成结构为出发点,综合运用本体论、形式化理论及定性与定量相结合的方法,建立了面向铁路应急决策的突发事件情景构建框架,深入研究了情景模型的构建方法、情景信息的集成方法、应急决策方法以及情景推演等关键问题。首先,本文在铁路应急管理体系下,对突发事件应急管理的特点和流程进行了深入分析,以情景分析理论为基础对情景要素进行分类。通过对情景要素的本体设计,建立铁路突发事件情景分层网络模型。引入情景重构的思想,研究铁路应急情景重构的流程及方法,并对情景网络中节点的依赖关系和可视化的表达进行了描述和分析。其次,分析情景构建的信息需求以及信息的来源和特征,针对铁路应急环境对信息服务集成的自治性的需求,研究了基于SOAACM的铁路应急情景信息服务集成方法。该方法通过引入Agent技术,采用软件Agent代理Web服务,将全局定义的情景模型划分为各个部门的本地流程模型,使得信息集成服务的控制分布到多个服务结点。与基于BPEL4WS的集成模型相比,使用该方法构造的信息服务集成系统具有更好的自治性和可伸缩性。再次,研究基于情景网络分析的铁路应急决策方法,将情景模型与粗糙集理论、D-S证据理论和贝叶斯网络有机结合完成铁路应急决策的推理。本文从实际应用的角度出发,依托情景要素之间的关联关系,融合专家知识构建贝叶斯网络模型。为了降低情景网络输入参数的复杂性,采用基于信息熵的粗糙集知识约简方法实现了最小决策信息集的提取。实例分析结果表明情景网络借助于简化后的模型进行决策推理,算法实现方便,即使在信息不完备的情况下也能得到满意的结果,更适合于实际应用。然后,建立了基于事件驱动的铁路突发事件情景推演模型。依据铁路突发事件情景演变的过程,将突发事件情景划分为初始情景、中间情景和结束情景,并对其相互关系进行分析。结合贝叶斯网络推理技术,详细描述了铁路突发事件情景推演过程。以列车脱轨事故为例,对情景网络的节点变量状态进行推演,推演结果与现实情况基本一致,证明该方法的可行性和有效性。最后,本文对铁路应急情景重构与辅助决策原型系统RESRADPS进行了设计,详细设计了系统的物理和逻辑架构以及功能模块结构,基于具体的软硬件平台实现了原型系统,并结合对系统功能界面和运行结果的分析,验证了本文所提出的理论、方法以及所构建系统的正确性、可行性和有效性。
[Abstract]:Railway emergencies have occurred frequently in recent years, which have caused great losses to railway transportation production and economic operation. With the application of new technologies and equipment in railway system, the correlation, coupling and complexity between the systems are also increasing, which aggravates the urgency and complexity of dealing with railway emergencies. Emergency management mode is facing unprecedented challenges in railway emergency management. Railway emergency management is changing from plan management to scenario management. On the basis of summarizing the relevant research results at home and abroad, this paper, starting from the composition structure of railway emergency scenarios, integrates ontology, formalization theory and qualitative and quantitative methods, establishes the framework of emergency scenarios for railway emergency decision-making, and studies the scenarios in depth. First of all, this paper analyzes the characteristics and process of emergency management under the railway emergency management system, and classifies the scene elements based on the theory of scenario analysis. A hierarchical network model of railway emergency scenarios is established by using the concept of scenario reconstruction. The process and method of railway emergency scenario reconstruction are studied, and the dependency and visualization of nodes in the network are described and analyzed. In order to satisfy the autonomous requirement of railway emergency environment for information service integration, the integration method of railway emergency scenario information service based on SOAACM is studied. By introducing agent technology and adopting software agent proxy Web service, the scenario model defined globally is divided into local process models of each department, which makes the information integration service possible. Compared with the integrated model based on BPEL4WS, the information service integration system constructed by this method has better autonomy and scalability. Thirdly, the railway emergency decision-making method based on scenario network analysis is studied, which combines scenario model with rough set theory, D-S evidence theory and Bayesian network. In order to reduce the complexity of input parameters of scenario network, a knowledge reduction method based on information entropy is used to realize the minimum decision information set extraction. The results of case analysis show that the scenario network can make decision reasoning by means of the simplified model, and the algorithm is easy to implement. Even if the information is incomplete, the algorithm can get satisfactory results, which is more suitable for practical application. Then, the scenario deduction model of railway emergency based on event-driven is established. The evolvement process divides the emergency scenarios into initial scenario, intermediate scenario and end scenario, and analyzes their relationship. Combined with Bayesian network reasoning technology, the process of railway emergency scenario deduction is described in detail. Finally, this paper designs RESRADPS, which is a prototype system of railway emergency scene reconfiguration and auxiliary decision-making. It designs the physical and logical framework and function module structure of the system in detail. The prototype system is implemented based on the specific hardware and software platform, and combined with the system power. The correctness, feasibility and validity of the proposed theory, method and the system are verified by the analysis of energy interface and operation results.
【学位授予单位】：兰州交通大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U298
本文编号：2226629
[Abstract]:Railway emergencies have occurred frequently in recent years, which have caused great losses to railway transportation production and economic operation. With the application of new technologies and equipment in railway system, the correlation, coupling and complexity between the systems are also increasing, which aggravates the urgency and complexity of dealing with railway emergencies. Emergency management mode is facing unprecedented challenges in railway emergency management. Railway emergency management is changing from plan management to scenario management. On the basis of summarizing the relevant research results at home and abroad, this paper, starting from the composition structure of railway emergency scenarios, integrates ontology, formalization theory and qualitative and quantitative methods, establishes the framework of emergency scenarios for railway emergency decision-making, and studies the scenarios in depth. First of all, this paper analyzes the characteristics and process of emergency management under the railway emergency management system, and classifies the scene elements based on the theory of scenario analysis. A hierarchical network model of railway emergency scenarios is established by using the concept of scenario reconstruction. The process and method of railway emergency scenario reconstruction are studied, and the dependency and visualization of nodes in the network are described and analyzed. In order to satisfy the autonomous requirement of railway emergency environment for information service integration, the integration method of railway emergency scenario information service based on SOAACM is studied. By introducing agent technology and adopting software agent proxy Web service, the scenario model defined globally is divided into local process models of each department, which makes the information integration service possible. Compared with the integrated model based on BPEL4WS, the information service integration system constructed by this method has better autonomy and scalability. Thirdly, the railway emergency decision-making method based on scenario network analysis is studied, which combines scenario model with rough set theory, D-S evidence theory and Bayesian network. In order to reduce the complexity of input parameters of scenario network, a knowledge reduction method based on information entropy is used to realize the minimum decision information set extraction. The results of case analysis show that the scenario network can make decision reasoning by means of the simplified model, and the algorithm is easy to implement. Even if the information is incomplete, the algorithm can get satisfactory results, which is more suitable for practical application. Then, the scenario deduction model of railway emergency based on event-driven is established. The evolvement process divides the emergency scenarios into initial scenario, intermediate scenario and end scenario, and analyzes their relationship. Combined with Bayesian network reasoning technology, the process of railway emergency scenario deduction is described in detail. Finally, this paper designs RESRADPS, which is a prototype system of railway emergency scene reconfiguration and auxiliary decision-making. It designs the physical and logical framework and function module structure of the system in detail. The prototype system is implemented based on the specific hardware and software platform, and combined with the system power. The correctness, feasibility and validity of the proposed theory, method and the system are verified by the analysis of energy interface and operation results.
【学位授予单位】：兰州交通大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U298
【共引文献】
相关硕士学位论文 前1条
1 冒朝静;山区高速公路分离式路基段突发事件应急管理资源配置研究[D];重庆交通大学;2013年
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