自然灾害与移民:一个中国历史上农民的被动选择
发布时间：2018-10-18 06:54
【摘要】：本文定量地研究了中国历史上自然灾害和农民迁徙之间的长期动态关系,在研究自然灾害的影响同时,因为农民迁移也是应对人口压力一种现象,所以也将人口压力纳入对农民迁徙的分析之中.本文基于历史大数据,采用了相关分析、多元线性和多元泊松回归分析,以及格兰杰因果分析去验证中国历史上自然灾害和农民迁徙之间的关系,揭示了自然灾害导致农民迁徙的影响是短期的,虽然农耕社会的缓冲能力比较低,但是在较短时期内,它有一定能力减轻自然灾害的影响,并且从统计结果上也能够反映农民对移民的被动和不情愿.而与之相反,尽管人口压力在短期内的影响有限,但是在长期尺度上通过影响土地承载力进而能够最终导致农民迁徙.
[Abstract]:This paper quantitatively studies the long-term dynamic relationship between natural disasters and peasant migration in the history of China. At the same time, it studies the influence of natural disasters, because peasant migration is also a phenomenon of coping with population pressure. Therefore, the population pressure is also included in the analysis of the migration of farmers. Based on historical big data, this paper uses correlation analysis, multivariate linear and multivariate Poisson regression analysis, and Granger causality analysis to verify the relationship between natural disasters and peasant migration in Chinese history. It is revealed that the impact of natural disasters on the migration of farmers is short-term. Although the buffering capacity of farming societies is relatively low, it has a certain capacity to mitigate the effects of natural disasters in a relatively short period of time. And from the statistical results can also reflect the passivity and reluctance of farmers to immigrants. In contrast, although the impact of population pressure is limited in the short term, it can eventually lead to the migration of farmers on a long-term scale by affecting the carrying capacity of land.
【作者单位】： 香港教育大学社会科学系;
【基金】：香港特区政府研究项目(编号:ECS28300717) 香港教育大学校内研究项目(编号:RG68/2016-2017)、香港教育大学研究启动项目(编号:R3744)、香港教育大学研究成果院长奖励项目(编号:04233-SSC ROP-3) 德国慕尼黑大学瑞秋·卡森奖2017~2018项目资助
【分类号】：D632.4;X43
本文编号：2278335
[Abstract]:This paper quantitatively studies the long-term dynamic relationship between natural disasters and peasant migration in the history of China. At the same time, it studies the influence of natural disasters, because peasant migration is also a phenomenon of coping with population pressure. Therefore, the population pressure is also included in the analysis of the migration of farmers. Based on historical big data, this paper uses correlation analysis, multivariate linear and multivariate Poisson regression analysis, and Granger causality analysis to verify the relationship between natural disasters and peasant migration in Chinese history. It is revealed that the impact of natural disasters on the migration of farmers is short-term. Although the buffering capacity of farming societies is relatively low, it has a certain capacity to mitigate the effects of natural disasters in a relatively short period of time. And from the statistical results can also reflect the passivity and reluctance of farmers to immigrants. In contrast, although the impact of population pressure is limited in the short term, it can eventually lead to the migration of farmers on a long-term scale by affecting the carrying capacity of land.
【作者单位】： 香港教育大学社会科学系;
【基金】：香港特区政府研究项目(编号:ECS28300717) 香港教育大学校内研究项目(编号:RG68/2016-2017)、香港教育大学研究启动项目(编号:R3744)、香港教育大学研究成果院长奖励项目(编号:04233-SSC ROP-3) 德国慕尼黑大学瑞秋·卡森奖2017~2018项目资助
【分类号】：D632.4;X43
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，本文编号：2278335
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