特困地区自然灾害脆弱性及其致贫效应的调查分析

发布时间：2018-11-02 17:21

【摘要】：为揭示市场化反贫困进程中农户的自然灾害脆弱性及其致贫效应,厘清精准扶贫工作优先序,本文采用滇桂黔石漠化地区和秦巴山区连片特困地区的农户调查数据,对农户灾害风险的感知情况进行分析,并通过熵值法和Probit模型评估农户的自然灾害脆弱性和市场风险脆弱性。通过对二者致贫效应进行对比研究后发现,相较于市场风险,自然灾害尤其旱涝等气象灾害是农户面临的主要威胁。农户自然灾害脆弱性程度更高,说明与市场风险相比,自然灾害对其造成损失的可能性更大。自然灾害脆弱性程度提高会显著增加农户陷入贫困的可能性,其致贫效应强于市场风险脆弱性,但两者致贫效应存在着统计意义上的此消彼长关系。可见,自然灾害致贫问题仍然不容忽视,应将提高特困地区农村抗灾减灾能力摆在首要位置,并促进小农户与大市场的有效对接,惟此方可实现特困地区农户精准脱贫和稳定发展。
[Abstract]:In order to reveal the vulnerability of farmers to natural disasters and their effects on poverty in the process of market-oriented anti-poverty, and to clarify the priority order of accurate poverty alleviation, the survey data of farmers in the rocky desertification areas of Yunnan, Guangxi and Guizhou and the special hardship areas in Qinba Mountain region were used in this paper. Based on the analysis of farmers' perception of disaster risk, the vulnerability of farmers to natural disasters and market risks is evaluated by entropy method and Probit model. It is found that natural disasters, especially drought and waterlogging, are the main threats to farmers, compared with market risks. The vulnerability of farmers to natural disasters is higher, which indicates that natural disasters are more likely to cause losses than market risks. The increase of vulnerability to natural disasters will significantly increase the possibility of farmers falling into poverty, and the poverty effect is stronger than the vulnerability of market risk, but there is a statistical relationship between them. It can be seen that the problem of poverty caused by natural disasters still cannot be ignored. It should be put at the top of the agenda to improve the resilience and mitigation capacity of rural areas in special hardship areas and to promote the effective interface between small farmers and large markets. Only then can realize the special hardship area farmer accurate extricate from poverty and the stable development.
【作者单位】：华中农业大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金面上项目“作物秸秆资源化利用的减碳潜力与生态环境效应:以水稻为例”(41371520) 教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“‘绿色化’的重大意义及实现途径研究”(15JZD014)
【分类号】：F323.8;X43

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