考虑恐慌影响的地铁站台应急疏散模型研究

发布时间：2018-11-11 21:56

【摘要】：随着我国经济的快速发展,全国各地涌现出城市轨道交通建设发展的新热潮。城市轨道交通作为大运量、可靠安全、节能环保的新型运载工具的杰出代表,成为了缓解交通压力的主要方式,为市民出行提供了便利。城市轨道交通客流量的增加,使其面临越来越重的人员集散任务,突发情况下如何引导人员安全、有序、高效疏散成为社会各界关注的重点。在进行疏散组织过程中,科学合理的疏散方法亟待研究,基于实际人员疏散行为的疏散方法研究,应当作为疏散组织中基础环节进行。乘客疏散行为方式受到自身生理及心理因素影响的同时,也受到外界环境影响,如何准确刻画人员在疏散过程中心理及行为变化将直接影响到疏散人员疏散结果的准确性。本文在借鉴国内外研究成果基础上,构建考虑可见度等多种因素的心理压力度模型,对已有社会力模型进行改进,用以研究火灾情况下人员运动情况。本文的主要研究内容包括以下几方面:(1)构建人员心理压力度模型。通过分析得到火灾情况下影响人员心理压力度的因素,对各类因素进行建模,并建立综合考虑多方因素,带有恐慌传播特性的人员心理恐慌模型。(2)对既有社会力模型进行改进并进行仿真验证。利用人员心理压力模型对社会力模型进行改进,得到考虑人员心理压力的全新社会力模型。分析改进后社会力模型的可行性及实用性。(3)建立疏散人员模型。针对人员疏散过程进行建模,建立疏散感知模型、决策、行为模型,为人员疏散提供行为准则。(4)仿真疏散场景案例研究。利用编程软件仿真实际站台人员疏散情况,得到不同疏散场景下的疏散效率,进而给出合理的疏散策略。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's economy, a new upsurge of urban rail transit construction has emerged all over the country. As an outstanding representative of a new type of transportation vehicle with large capacity, reliability, safety, energy saving and environmental protection, urban rail transit has become the main way to relieve traffic pressure, and has provided convenience for citizens to travel. With the increase of urban rail transit passenger flow, it is faced with more and more heavy task of collecting and distributing people. How to guide personnel safety, orderly and efficient evacuation has become the focus of attention of all walks of life. In the process of evacuation organization, scientific and reasonable evacuation methods need to be studied urgently. The study of evacuation methods based on actual evacuation behavior should be taken as the basic link in evacuation organization. The behavior of passengers evacuation is affected by their own physical and psychological factors, but also by the external environment. How to accurately describe the psychological and behavioral changes in the evacuation process will directly affect the accuracy of evacuation results. Based on the domestic and foreign research results, this paper constructs a psychological stress model considering many factors, such as visibility, and improves the existing social force model to study the movement of people in the fire situation. The main research contents of this paper are as follows: (1) build the model of psychological stress. Through the analysis of the factors that affect the intensity of psychological pressure in the case of fire, the modeling of all kinds of factors is carried out, and the comprehensive consideration of various factors is established. The psychological panic model with the characteristics of panic propagation. (2) the existing social force model is improved and verified by simulation. The social force model is improved by using the psychological stress model of personnel, and a new social force model considering the psychological stress of personnel is obtained. The feasibility and practicability of the improved social force model are analyzed. (3) the evacuation model is established. Modeling the evacuation process, establishing the evacuation perception model, decision-making, behavior model, to provide a code of conduct for the evacuation. (4) Simulation evacuation scenario case study. The evacuation efficiency of different evacuation scenarios is obtained by using the programming software to simulate the actual platform evacuation, and a reasonable evacuation strategy is given.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U231.96;U298

【参考文献】