利用增强回归树分析中国野火空间分布格局的影响因素

发布时间：2018-11-21 07:53

【摘要】：确定野火空间分布区格局的影响因素,对野火的预测、火险区划具有重要的意义,同时也为制定合理的野火管理措施提供科学依据。以中国2006—2011年野火发生面积和次数作为因变量,选取了5个影响因素,利用增强回归树(boosted regression tree,BRT)方法分析了影响野火空间分布格局的主要因素。结果表明:影响中国野火过火面积空间分布的因素从大到小依次是海拔(36.92%)、年平均气温(27.85%)、年平均降雨量(13.17%)、人口密度(13.00%)和植被类型(9.07%),总体来说,气候因子和海拔的差异决定了研究区过火面积的空间分布格局;影响中国野火火烧次数空间分布的因素从大到小依次是人口密度(27.44%)、海拔(25.97%)、植被类型(22.84%)、年平均气温(18.98%)和年平均降雨量(4.77%),可以看出,人类活动、地形和可燃物共同影响火烧次数的空间分布格局。建议在制定全国火险区划时,除了气候和植被因素外,还应该重点考虑地形,特别是海拔的影响;并且加强野外用火管理,开展可燃物的处理以减少野火的发生。
[Abstract]:It is of great significance to determine the influencing factors of the spatial distribution pattern of wildfire and to predict the wildfire, and to provide scientific basis for formulating reasonable management measures of wildfire. Taking the area and frequency of wildfire occurrence in China from 2006 to 2011 as dependent variables, five influencing factors were selected and the main factors affecting the spatial distribution pattern of wild fire were analyzed by using the method of enhanced regression tree (boosted regression tree,BRT). The results showed that the factors influencing the spatial distribution of overfire area in China were altitude (36.92%), annual mean temperature (27.85%) and annual rainfall (13.17%). Population density (13.00%) and vegetation type (9.07%). In general, the difference of climatic factors and altitude determines the spatial distribution pattern of overfire area in the study area. The factors influencing the spatial distribution of wildfires in China were population density (27.44%), altitude (25.97%) and vegetation type (22.84%). The annual mean temperature (18.98%) and the annual average rainfall (4.77%) can be seen that human activities, topography and combustible matter together affect the spatial distribution pattern of the number of fires. It is suggested that, in addition to climate and vegetation factors, the influence of topography, especially altitude, should be taken into account in the formulation of national fire risk regionalization, and field fire management should be strengthened to reduce the occurrence of wildfires through the treatment of combustible substances.
【作者单位】：中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所森林与土壤生态国家重点实验室;中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所;中国科学院大学;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(31470516;41201185和41271201) 中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA05050201)资助
【分类号】：X932

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