重大核事故情景库建立及应用

发布时间：2018-11-26 08:06

【摘要】：突发事件的应对方法主要被分为两类,即传统的"预测-应对"模式和新兴的"情景-应对"模式。近年来随着社会的进步和发展,非常规突发事件的罕见性、演化过程的复杂性及不可预测性,造成后果的严重性及不确定性愈发明显,决策者逐渐发现传统的"预测-应对"模式已经无法满足现代应急需求,因此"情景-应对"模式被越来越多的学者和应急指挥人员所广泛接受并得到了大量研究。该文以非常规突发事件中较为罕见但影响重大的核事故为研究对象,采用后果评价的方法分别针对简单风场和复杂风场进行研究并建立重大核事故情景库,通过风场分析的方式缩小情景库规模,最后利用情景比对的方法实现重大核事故源项反演。通过情景库进行源项反演的方法具有速度快、效率高的特点,能够为核事故应急救援工作的开展节省宝贵的时间。
[Abstract]:Emergency response methods are divided into two main categories: the traditional "prediction-response" model and the emerging "situation-response" model. In recent years, with the progress and development of the society, the rarity of unconventional emergencies, the complexity and unpredictability of the evolution process, the severity and uncertainty of the consequences become more and more obvious. The decision-makers gradually find that the traditional "prediction-response" model can not meet the needs of modern emergency response, so the "situation-response" model has been widely accepted by more and more scholars and emergency commanders. In this paper, the relatively rare but significant nuclear accidents in unconventional emergencies are taken as the research object. The simple wind field and the complex wind field are studied by using the method of consequence evaluation, and the major nuclear accident scenario database is established. The scale of scenario base is reduced by wind field analysis, and the source term inversion of major nuclear accident is realized by scenario comparison. The method of source item inversion through scenario database has the characteristics of high speed and high efficiency, which can save precious time for the work of nuclear accident emergency rescue.
【作者单位】：清华大学公共安全研究院;中国人民公安大学警务信息工程学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71203229,71203118)
【分类号】：TL73

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