改进离散动态事件树的分支生成机制——精确概率阈值法
发布时间：2018-11-28 07:30
【摘要】：概率阈值法存在定位分支生成时间点不精确,建立的离散动态事件树具有较大时间不确定性等问题。针对概率阈值法存在的不足提出相应的改进措施——精确概率阈值法。通过分析动态水箱发现:在概率阈值为0.99的条件下,精确概率阈值法的总节点数比概率阈值法少25%,事故节点数仅少2.7%,计算时间缩短了37.7%,证明精确概率阈值法对事故节点的分析效率更高;精确概率阈值法得到的总事故概率比概率阈值法小33.6%,对于水箱干涸事故其留给操作人员采取措施干预事故发展的时间窗口更长;并且精确概率阈值法建立的离散动态事件树显示出更多的演化路径,反映了更多的事故信息,利于全面掌握动态水箱的事故演化过程,更适合研究系统的运行动态特性。
[Abstract]:The probabilistic threshold method has some problems such as the imprecision of the time points generated by the location branches and the large time uncertainty of the established discrete dynamic event tree. Aiming at the shortcomings of probabilistic threshold method, this paper puts forward the corresponding improvement measure-precise probabilistic threshold method. By analyzing the dynamic water tank, it is found that under the condition of probability threshold of 0.99, the total number of nodes in the accurate probability threshold method is 25 less than that of the probability threshold method, the number of accident nodes is only 2.7 less, and the calculation time is shortened by 37.7%. It is proved that the accurate probability threshold method is more efficient for the analysis of accident nodes. The probability of the total accident obtained by the accurate probability threshold method is 33.6 less than that by the probability threshold method, and the time window left to the operator to take measures to intervene in the development of the accident is longer for the dry water tank accident. And the discrete dynamic event tree established by the accurate probability threshold method shows more evolution paths and reflects more accident information, which is helpful to master the accident evolution process of the dynamic water tank and is more suitable for studying the dynamic characteristics of the system.
【作者单位】： 海军工程大学核能科学与工程系;南昌航空大学材料科学与工程学院;
【基金】：核反应堆系统设计技术国家重点实验室基金资助项目(HT-JXYY-02-2014002)
【分类号】：TL364
，
本文编号：2362225
[Abstract]:The probabilistic threshold method has some problems such as the imprecision of the time points generated by the location branches and the large time uncertainty of the established discrete dynamic event tree. Aiming at the shortcomings of probabilistic threshold method, this paper puts forward the corresponding improvement measure-precise probabilistic threshold method. By analyzing the dynamic water tank, it is found that under the condition of probability threshold of 0.99, the total number of nodes in the accurate probability threshold method is 25 less than that of the probability threshold method, the number of accident nodes is only 2.7 less, and the calculation time is shortened by 37.7%. It is proved that the accurate probability threshold method is more efficient for the analysis of accident nodes. The probability of the total accident obtained by the accurate probability threshold method is 33.6 less than that by the probability threshold method, and the time window left to the operator to take measures to intervene in the development of the accident is longer for the dry water tank accident. And the discrete dynamic event tree established by the accurate probability threshold method shows more evolution paths and reflects more accident information, which is helpful to master the accident evolution process of the dynamic water tank and is more suitable for studying the dynamic characteristics of the system.
【作者单位】： 海军工程大学核能科学与工程系;南昌航空大学材料科学与工程学院;
【基金】：核反应堆系统设计技术国家重点实验室基金资助项目(HT-JXYY-02-2014002)
【分类号】：TL364
，
本文编号：2362225
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