基于FAPH和脆性联系理论的交通安全系统脆性研究

发布时间：2018-12-12 01:22

【摘要】：经济的快速发展使人们对机动车的需求增加,随之产生了交通堵塞、交通事故等问题,给经济和社会造成严重损失。交通安全系统中的一个子系统受到内部或者外界足够大的干扰后,失去正常工作能力而瘫痪,如果引发连锁反应,交通安全系统就会表现出脆性。针对这种情况,本文采用模糊层次分析法(FAPH)和脆性联系理论对交通安全系统脆性展开了研究。首先,分析国内外交通安全系统的研究现状和研究方法,文献分别从系统层面、道路设计以及交通控制等方面对交通安全系统进行分析,但有关交通安全系统脆性源和交通安全系统与子系统之间的脆性关联研究还有所欠缺。其次,从需求和供给两个方面对影响交通安全系统的因素进行分析。然后,将国家宏观管理和科研开发等因素加入到交通安全系统的脆性源中,构建了比较完整的交通安全系统递阶层次图,再根据专家调查法结果构造优先判断矩阵,采用改进的模糊层次分析法(FAPH)将其改造成模糊一致矩阵,通过单层次排序和总排序得出底层脆性源对交通安全系统总目标的影响权重排序。结果显示,驾驶员礼让意识缺乏和安全教育重视不够是交通安全系统的主脆性源,另外,应该重视国家宏观管理和科研开发对总目标的影响。接着,通过研究交通安全系统的脆性关联性获得它的脆性关联模型,采用集对分析理论计算交通安全系统的同一度、对立度和波动度,然后应用脆性联系熵理论计算脆性同一熵、脆性对立熵以及脆性波动熵,再利用突变级数评价法确定各种熵在脆性联系熵中的权重并计算脆性联系熵。为了更合理的分析,引入集对分析中的对立度系数和波动度系数,分析研究了波动熵对脆性联系熵的影响。通过分析波动度系数,得出波动熵对脆性联系熵的作用效果与同一性向波动性的发展趋势和波动性向对立性的发展趋势有关。最终结果显示,安全保障子系统是交通安全系统的薄弱子系统。最后,针对前面的研究结果,提出了增强驾驶员的安全意识、加强安全教育、增加对交通安全专项费用投入、加大科研开发、协调相关部门之间的职能、完善事故信息系统、车辆管制等建议。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy, the demand for motor vehicles increases, resulting in traffic jams, traffic accidents and other problems, causing serious losses to the economy and society. A subsystem in a traffic safety system is paralyzed by internal or external disturbance and loses its normal working ability. If a chain reaction is initiated, the traffic safety system will show brittleness. In this paper, fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAPH) and brittleness connection theory are used to study the brittleness of traffic safety system. First of all, the research status and methods of traffic safety system at home and abroad are analyzed. The literature analyzes traffic safety system from system level, road design and traffic control, etc. However, the research on the brittleness source of traffic safety system and the relationship between traffic safety system and subsystem is still lacking. Secondly, the factors affecting traffic safety system are analyzed from demand and supply. Then, the national macroscopic management and scientific research and development are added to the brittle source of the traffic safety system, and a relatively complete hierarchy map of the traffic safety system is constructed, and then the priority judgment matrix is constructed according to the results of the expert investigation. The improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAPH) is adopted to transform it into a fuzzy consistent matrix, and the influence weight of the underlying brittle source on the total target of traffic safety system is obtained by single and total ranking. The results show that the driver's lack of comity consciousness and the insufficient attention to safety education are the main brittle sources of traffic safety system. In addition, the influence of national macro management and scientific research and development on the overall goal should be paid more attention to. Then, by studying the brittleness correlation of traffic safety system, the brittleness correlation model of traffic safety system is obtained, and the identical degree, opposites and fluctuation degree of traffic safety system are calculated by set pair analysis theory. Then, the theory of brittleness connection entropy is applied to calculate the same entropy of brittleness, the entropy of brittleness opposition and the entropy of wave of brittleness, and then the weight of entropy in the entropy of brittle connection is determined by using the method of abrupt series evaluation and the entropy of brittle connection is calculated. In order to make more reasonable analysis, the antagonism coefficient and volatility coefficient in set pair analysis are introduced, and the influence of wave entropy on brittle connection entropy is analyzed. Based on the analysis of volatility coefficient, it is concluded that the effect of volatility entropy on brittle contact entropy is related to the trend of identity to volatility and the trend of volatility opposites. The result shows that the safety subsystem is the weak subsystem of the traffic safety system. Finally, according to the results of the previous research, it is proposed to enhance the driver's safety awareness, strengthen safety education, increase the investment in traffic safety special expenses, increase scientific research and development, coordinate the functions between relevant departments, and improve the accident information system. Recommendations on vehicle control, etc.
【学位授予单位】：广西大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：U492.8

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