基于区间数偏序关系和群决策的铁路突发事件应急能力指标评价研究

发布时间：2019-06-06 16:47

【摘要】：近年来,随着铁路行业的飞速发展,铁路突发事件时有发生,给人民的生命财产以及国民经济造成了极大的损失。因此,铁路行业应急能力的建设与提升对于应对突发事件有着重要的现实意义。当前,铁路行业应急能力方面的相关研究比较少,应急能力机制还不够完善,应急能力指标评价体系存在一定局限性。所以,针对铁路突发事件应急能力评价指标的研究是一个非常重要的课题。本文对铁路应急能力指标进行探索,构建了铁路突发事件应急能力指标评价体系,运用区间数偏序关系和群决策相关理论建立评价模型对铁路突发事件应急能力指标进行科学评价。首先,根据铁路相关领域突发事件、应急能力的概念,围绕铁路突发事件应急能力的基本理论,通过查阅文献、分析现有研究成果和向专家调研等方法,依据铁路突发事件应急能力的复杂性和指标评价标准难确定性特点,对所有的应急能力影响因素进行较为全面的分析,以科学性和客观性、可测性和可行性、全面性和简明性、独立性和稳定性、实用性和导向性为指标评价的选取原则,并不断修改完善,建立了铁路突发事件应急能力两级评价体系,包括应急人员保障、应急资源保障、应急预案管理、应急响应、应急信息发布及管理、应急恢复6个一级指标和相应24个二级指标。其次,考虑到指标评价标准难确定性和专家对信息的偏好,在确定指标权重时,运用区间数表示指标成对比较偏序关系和指标权重,能够有效的解决决策专家对指标判断上的模糊性和不确定性。传统AHP方法是通过构造成对比较判断矩阵来计算指标权重,对判断矩阵的要求必须通过一致性检验,否则要对判断矩阵进行补充和修正。本文利用层析分析法中的判断矩阵,以一致性检验结果最小为目标,采用非线性规划模型计算指标权重,很好的解决传统AHP方法的不足,而且该方法简单易行、可靠性高。然而,决策者个体由于权利、专业、经验等因素的不同,在决策过程中有很大局限性,往往很难做出准确合理的决策。因此,本文在研究个体决策的基础上考虑群体决策的情况,分析个体决策和群体决策的不同情况,进行研究。本文采用个体方案权重向量集结法,融合区间数偏序关系运算法则,在集结各单独个体决策专家的方案权重向量时考虑个体决策者的权重系数。最终通过相对熵理论建立非线性规划模型,将个体权重结果集结成群体的方案权重向量,并由此获得决策群体对方案的最终排序结果。该方法避免了个体决策的独断权利,很好的解决了群体决策偏好不一致的问题,决策结果更为合理。最后,应用实例验证了评价方法的有效性和合理性,通过个体决策和群体决策得到了的铁路突发事件应急能力指标评价结果并进行分析,结果表明群体决策最终权重排序结果更切合实际。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid development of railway industry, railway emergencies occur from time to time, causing great losses to people's lives and property and the national economy. Therefore, the construction and promotion of emergency capacity in railway industry is of great practical significance to deal with emergencies. At present, there are few related research on emergency capacity of railway industry, the mechanism of emergency response capacity is not perfect, and there are some limitations in the evaluation system of emergency capacity index. Therefore, it is a very important topic to study the evaluation index of railway emergency response capacity. In this paper, the index of railway emergency ability is explored, and the evaluation system of railway emergency ability index is constructed. The evaluation model is established by using the partial order relation of interval number and the theory of group decision making to evaluate the emergency ability index of railway emergency scientifically. First of all, according to the concept of emergency and emergency capacity in railway related fields, around the basic theory of railway emergency response capacity, through consulting the literature, analyzing the existing research results and expert investigation and other methods, According to the complexity of railway emergency response capacity and the difficult deterministic characteristics of index evaluation criteria, this paper makes a more comprehensive analysis of all the influencing factors of emergency response capacity, in order to be scientific and objective, testability and feasibility, comprehensiveness and simplicity. Independence and stability, practicability and orientation are the selection principles of index evaluation, and constantly modify and improve, and establish a two-level evaluation system of railway emergency response capacity, including emergency personnel support, emergency resources support, emergency plan management. Emergency response, emergency information release and management, emergency recovery 6 first-level indicators and corresponding 24 second-level indicators. Secondly, considering the difficulty of certainty of index evaluation criteria and the preference of experts for information, when determining the index weight, the interval number is used to represent the pairwise partial order relationship and index weight of the index. It can effectively solve the fuzziness and uncertainty of decision-making experts in the judgment of indicators. The traditional AHP method calculates the index weight by constructing a pairwise comparative judgment matrix. The requirements of the judgment matrix must pass the consistency test, otherwise the judgment matrix must be supplemented and modified. In this paper, the judgment matrix of tomographic analysis is used, and the nonlinear programming model is used to calculate the index weight with the goal of minimizing the consistency test results, which solves the shortcomings of the traditional AHP method very well, and the method is simple and feasible, and the reliability is high. However, due to the different rights, specialties, experiences and other factors, individual decision makers have great limitations in the decision-making process, and it is often difficult to make accurate and reasonable decisions. Therefore, on the basis of studying individual decision-making, this paper considers the situation of group decision-making, analyzes the different situations of individual decision-making and group decision-making, and carries on the research. In this paper, the individual scheme weight vector set method is used to combine the interval number partial order relation algorithm to consider the weight coefficient of the individual decision maker when assembling the scheme weight vector of each individual decision expert. Finally, the nonlinear programming model is established by relative entropy theory, and the individual weight results are aggregated into the scheme weight vector of the group, and the final ranking result of the decision group to the scheme is obtained. This method avoids the arbitrary right of individual decision-making, solves the problem of inconsistent preference of group decision-making, and the decision-making result is more reasonable. Finally, the effectiveness and rationality of the evaluation method are verified by an example, and the evaluation results of railway emergency response ability index are obtained and analyzed through individual decision-making and group decision-making. The results show that the final weight ranking results of group decision making are more realistic.
【学位授予单位】：兰州交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U298

【参考文献】