基于引力效用的人员的建筑时空分布研究

发布时间：2019-06-06 17:33

【摘要】：区域性重大自然灾害和安全事故会导致严重的人员伤亡,高效率的救援是减少人员伤亡的重要保障。对于实现高效率救援而言,一个重要的保障就是掌握灾害事故发生区域内人员在建筑空间的分布情况。当前,面对我国乃至全球范围内灾害事故频发的严峻形势,获取灾害发生区域内人员的分布信息并依此优化救援方案对保障人民生命安全具有重要的科学意义和实际价值。本文将区域内的建筑作为人员的分布空间,根据各类人员个体对空间的效用评价,计算出人员在空间的分布概率,再结合区域内各类人员的统计总人数,最终将人员分布的个体无序性转化为群体有序性,从而使区域内各类空间内的人员数量可以被统计。本文的主要研究工作如下:(1)以数理统计为理论基础,利用概率对单个个体分布的无序性进行分析,利用数学期望对大量人员的群体分布进行分析,进而阐释人员个体分布向群体人员分布的转化机制。(2)依据人员个体活动范围中起讫点的往返关系,将人员的住宅空间作为起点,阐释多圆范围向单圆范围转化的机制,结合5km生活半径原则及交通小区划分中的区域同质性原则,为研究区域的确定提供理论依据。(3)通过人员对空间的效用评价,研究二者之间的"引力",利用效用值对"引力"大小进行表达,并以效用为中介,实现"引力"模型向分布概率的转化。同时,讨论同类建筑空间使用面积的大小差异对人员分布概率的影响,并将各建筑使用面积与同类空间总面积的比值作为人员分布概率的权重系数。(4)基于效用理论对人员与空间的联系进行研究,通过人员对空间各属性的主观偏好比较,得出空间各属性的权值和在不同时段内的等级隶属度,并利用模糊数学方法得出在时间影响下的效用值的计算模型,确定不同时段内空间对人员的效用值,从而量化人员对空间的主观意识评价。
[Abstract]:Regional major natural disasters and safety accidents will lead to serious casualties, efficient rescue is an important guarantee to reduce casualties. For the realization of efficient rescue, an important guarantee is to master the distribution of people in the building space in the disaster accident area. At present, in the face of the severe situation of frequent occurrence of disasters and accidents in our country and even in the world, it is of great scientific significance and practical value to obtain the distribution information of personnel in the disaster occurrence area and optimize the rescue plan to ensure the safety of people's lives. In this paper, the buildings in the area are regarded as the distribution space of personnel. According to the evaluation of the utility of all kinds of personnel to the space, the distribution probability of personnel in space is calculated, and then combined with the total number of all kinds of personnel in the region, Finally, the individual disorder of personnel distribution is transformed into group order, so that the number of people in all kinds of space in the region can be counted. The main research work of this paper is as follows: (1) based on mathematical statistics, the disorder of individual distribution is analyzed by probability, and the group distribution of a large number of people is analyzed by mathematical expectation. Then it explains the transformation mechanism from the individual distribution of personnel to the distribution of group personnel. (2) according to the round-trip relationship between the starting and ending points in the range of individual activities of personnel, the residential space of personnel is taken as the starting point to explain the mechanism of the transformation from multi-circle to single circle. Combined with the principle of 5km life radius and the principle of regional homogeneity in traffic district division, this paper provides a theoretical basis for the determination of research area. (3) through the evaluation of the utility of space, the "gravity" between the two is studied. The effective value is used to express the size of gravity, and the transformation from gravity model to distribution probability is realized by taking utility as intermediary. At the same time, the influence of the difference of space use area on the probability of personnel distribution is discussed. The ratio of the area used by each building to the total area of the same kind of space is taken as the weight coefficient of the probability of personnel distribution. (4) based on the utility theory, the relationship between people and space is studied, and the subjective preferences of personnel to each attribute of space are compared. The weights of each attribute in space and the grade membership degree in different periods are obtained, and the calculation model of utility value under the influence of time is obtained by using fuzzy mathematics method, and the utility value of space to personnel in different periods is determined. In order to quantify the subjective consciousness evaluation of space.
【学位授予单位】：西南石油大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X4;X928

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