基于Johnson分布体系的含风电场发电系统可靠性评估

发布时间：2017-12-27 21:15

本文关键词：基于Johnson分布体系的含风电场发电系统可靠性评估　出处：《电力系统自动化》2016年10期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：提出了一种基于Johnson分布体系的多维变量建模方法,并将其应用于含风电场发电系统年度可靠性指标计算中。该方法利用风速历史数据和持续负荷曲线构建风速和负荷与标准正态变量的关系,即模拟风速和负荷的概率分布特征,进而通过模拟相关多维标准正态变量来实现对风速相关性的模拟,避免了因假设风速概率分布模型可能导致模拟精度低的缺点。通过算例分析,验证了算法在模拟负荷和风速分布时的精度以及应用于含风电场发电系统可靠性评估中的适用性。在此基础上分析了风电场风速相关性对含风电场发电系统可靠性指标的影响。
[Abstract]:A multi-dimensional variable modeling method based on Johnson distribution system is proposed and applied to the annual reliability index calculation of wind power generation system. The relationship between the historical data and using the method of wind load duration curve construction of wind speed and load and standard normal variables, namely simulated probability distribution of wind speed and load, and then through the relevant standard multidimensional simulation of normal variables to simulate the correlation of wind speed, avoid the assumption that the probability distribution of wind speed model may lead to the disadvantage of low precision simulation. The accuracy of the algorithm in simulated load and wind speed distribution and the applicability of the algorithm to the reliability evaluation of wind power generation system are verified by an example. On this basis, the influence of wind speed correlation on the reliability index of wind electric field power generation system is analyzed.
【作者单位】：电力传输与功率变换控制教育部重点实验室(上海交通大学);中国电力科学研究院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金重点项目(51337005) 国家电网公司基础性前瞻性科技项目(XT71-14-002)~~
【分类号】：TM614;TM732
【正文快照】： 上网日期:2016-01-13。0引言环境问题和能源危机的加剧使得可再生能源日益受到关注,其占一次能源比例越来越高。以中国为例,2014年新增风电和光伏发电装机容量30.41GW,累计并网装机容量达到124.42GW,占全部发电装机容量的9%,年上网电量178.4TW·h,占全部发电量的3.23%[1-2]。

【参考文献】