基于热路模型和马尔科夫链的碳纤维复合芯导线载流量估计研究

发布时间：2018-02-12 07:17

本文关键词： 碳纤维复合芯导线热路模型马尔科夫链粒子群优化算法　出处：《南京理工大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：碳纤维复合芯(ACCC)导线作为一种新型高温低弧垂导线,与传统架空导线相比具有重量轻、强度大、耐高温、弧垂低、导电率高、载流量大、耐腐蚀等优点,可解决电力负荷急速增长和输电走廊选择困难等问题,是目前最具发展潜力的新型导线之一。然而,由于ACCC导线发展时间较短,其载流量估计方法研究较少,导致现有ACCC导线线路载流量多由静态热定值法确定,限制了导线输电能力。因此,为挖掘导线输电潜力,提高ACCC导线运行的经济性和安全性,本文对ACCC导线载流估计方法展开了相关研究。本文首先研究了IEEE标准模型、IEC标准模型及热路模型等传统ACSR导线载流量计算模型,对各模型参数计算方法进行了对比,并分析了各常用模型的优缺点,为ACCC导线热路模型的建立奠定了理论基础。随后,基于热电类比理论,以ACCC导线为研究对象,建立了ACCC导线热路模型,并选用粒子群优化算法对模型未知参数进行辨识求解。以国产ACCC-240/35导线为对象,搭建了导线载流温升实验平台,在不同加载电流下,对自然对流条件下的ACCC导线进行了载流温升实验和交流电阻测量实验。结果表明,所提ACCC导线交流电阻计算方法最大误差小于1.2%,模型计算误差不超过2.2%,本文建立的ACCC导线热路模型及其参数辨识方法能够有效地确定模型参数,可较准确地描述导线的热动态过程,为导线载流量估计提供模型依据。最后,为解决自然气象条件下,环境热阻随机扰动对载流量估计精度造成的影响,本文提出了基于热路模型与马尔科夫链的ACCC导线载流量估计方法。该方法通过对模型等效环境热阻序列进行马尔科夫链模拟,能以过载概率的形式确定导线动态载流量。户外条件下进行的ACCC导线载流温升实验结果表明,所提方法载流量估计值与实测值基本相符。该方法可为ACCC导线输电能力的挖掘提供基础,并为ACCC导线线路的安全经济运行提供保障。
[Abstract]:As a new type of high temperature and low sag conductor, carbon fiber composite core ACCC conductor has the advantages of light weight, high strength, high temperature resistance, low sag, high conductivity, high load capacity, corrosion resistance and so on. It can solve the problems such as the rapid increase of power load and the difficulty of selecting transmission corridors, which is one of the most promising new conductors. However, due to the short development time of ACCC conductors, there is less research on the methods of estimating the load current of ACCC conductors. As a result, the current carrier current of ACCC traverse lines is mostly determined by the static caloric method, which limits the transmission capacity of the conductors. Therefore, in order to excavate the transmission potential of the conductors, improve the economy and safety of the ACCC traverse operation, In this paper, the current load estimation methods of ACCC traverse are studied. Firstly, the traditional ACCC traverse current calculation models, such as IEEE standard model and hot path model, are studied, and the calculation methods of each model parameters are compared. The advantages and disadvantages of each common model are analyzed, which lays a theoretical foundation for the establishment of ACCC traverse hot path model. Then, based on thermoelectric analogy theory, taking ACCC conductor as the research object, the ACCC traverse hot path model is established. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is used to identify and solve the unknown parameters of the model. Taking the domestic ACCC-240/35 conductors as the object, an experimental platform of conducting current temperature rise is set up under different loading currents. The experiments of current carrying temperature rise and AC resistance measurement of ACCC conductors under natural convection conditions are carried out. The results show that, The maximum error of the proposed method for calculating the AC resistance of ACCC conductors is less than 1.2 and the error of model calculation is less than 2.2. The thermal circuit model of ACCC conductors and its parameter identification method established in this paper can effectively determine the parameters of the model. The thermal dynamic process of conductors can be described more accurately and the model can be used to estimate the carrier flow of conductors. Finally, in order to solve the influence of random disturbance of environmental thermal resistance on the accuracy of carrier flow estimation under natural meteorological conditions, In this paper, a method for estimating the carrier flow of ACCC conductors based on thermal path model and Markov chain is proposed, which simulates the equivalent environmental thermal resistance sequence of the model by Markov chain simulation. The dynamic load rate of the conductor can be determined in the form of overload probability. The experimental results of the current carrying temperature rise of ACCC conductors under outdoor conditions show that, The proposed method is in good agreement with the measured value, which can provide a foundation for the excavation of the transmission capacity of ACCC conductors and guarantee the safe and economical operation of ACCC traverse lines.
【学位授予单位】：南京理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TM75

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