基于LMDI的京津冀地区电力工业碳排放影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-03-13 10:54

本文选题：京津冀地区　切入点：电力工业碳排放　出处：《华北电力大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：二氧化碳(CO_2)等温室气体排放引发的全球气候变暖已经成为当今世界面临的重要政治、经济和环境问题,为此,国际社会展开了广泛讨论和积极合作。中国作为全球最大的CO_2排放国,多次在世界性会议上作出减排承诺,并将CO_2排放总量控制目标分解至地区(省、市)和产业层面,层层推进,力争实现2030年的减排目标。同时,基于中国的资源禀赋,电力工业面临着化石能源消耗量高和CO_2排放规模庞大等问题,是节能减排的重点领域之一。本研究在京津冀地区一体化协同发展背景下,深入探寻京津冀地区电力工业CO_2排放的影响因素,进而挖掘其CO_2减排潜力,提出相应的减排建议,对实现电力工业低碳发展,助力京津冀地区协同发展与低碳城市建设,具有重大的现实意义。本文以1995-2014年京津冀地区电力工业CO_2排放为研究对象,首先从京津冀地区及电力工业发展现状入手,根据能源消耗数据测算了1995-2014年间京津冀地区电力工业CO_2排放量,并对其变化特征及存在的问题进行分析;其次,综合发电环节、电力调入调出环节、输配电环节和电力终端消费环节,建立对数平均迪氏指数(LMDI)递阶分解模型,将影响京津冀地区电力工业CO_2排放的因素分解为发电能源结构、电力结构、发用电比例等10个因素,并对各因素的作用效果进行深入分析,结果表明,1995-2014年间京津冀地区电力工业CO_2排放的正向驱动因素依次为经济规模效应、人口规模效应、输配电损失效应和产业结构效应,负向驱动因素依次为产业电耗强度效应、发电煤耗效应、发用电比例效应、居民生活电耗强度、电力结构效应和发电能源结构效应;最后,基于LMDI预测模型与情景分析法,科学设置出2020年京津冀地区电力工业发展的3种情景,对2015-2020年京津冀地区电力工业CO_2减排潜力进行分析研究,并因地制宜地从电力低碳发展规划、电力需求侧管理、能源结构调整、低碳电源和外调绿电通道建设等多方面提出促进京津冀地区电力工业CO_2减排的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Carbon dioxide (CO_2) and other greenhouse gas emissions caused by global warming has become an important political facing the world today, economic and environmental problems, therefore, the international community launched a wide-ranging discussion and cooperation. China as the world's largest emitter of CO_2, many of the world conference to make commitments, and CO_2 emission control target decomposition to region (province, city) and the industry level, step by step, and strive to achieve the 2030 target. At the same time, China resources based on the electric power industry is faced with the problem of high volume and CO_2 emissions of large consumption of fossil energy, is one of the key areas of energy conservation. In this study, the integration of Beijing Tianjin Hebei region cooperation under the background of the development, further explore the factors influencing industrial CO_2 emission of Beijing Tianjin Hebei Power, and tap the potential of CO_2 emission reduction, and puts forward the corresponding suggestions to achieve power reduction. Low carbon industrial development, boost the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region coordinated development and the construction of low-carbon city, is of great practical significance. This paper takes 1995-2014 years in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region electric power industry CO_2 emissions as the research object, firstly from the current development of Beijing Tianjin Hebei region and the electric power industry of energy consumption, according to the data measured during the past 1995-2014 years, the Beijing Tianjin Hebei Industrial CO_2 emissions the amount of electric power, and the characteristics and existing problems are analyzed; secondly, integrated power generation, transmission and distribution of power transferred to transfer link, link and terminal power consumption, a logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) hierarchical decomposition model, the factors affecting the industrial emissions of CO_2 in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region power into energy structure. The power structure, electricity proportion of the 10 factors, in-depth analysis, and the effect of various factors. The results show that the 1995-2014 years between the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region power Positive drivers of industrial CO_2 emissions are economic scale, population scale, transmission loss effect and industrial structure effect, negative drive factors of industry power consumption intensity effect, coal consumption effect, electricity proportion effect, residents living consumption intensity, power structure effect and energy structure effect; finally, LMDI prediction model and scenario analysis method based on Science, set up 3 scenarios in 2020 Beijing Hebei electric power industry development, research and analysis of the 2015-2020 years of CO_2 emission reduction potential of electric power industry in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region, and to be in low carbon development planning of power, power demand side management, the adjustment of energy structure, many aspects of low carbon power and the redeployment of green electricity corridor construction put forward to promote the CO_2 reduction of power industry in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region policy recommendations.

【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X322;F426.61

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