完全成本视角下煤电与风电的竞争与替代研究

发布时间：2018-04-05 02:03

本文选题：完全成本　切入点：煤炭发电　出处：《中国矿业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：电力行业在我国国民经济发展中发挥着至关重要的作用,随着我国经济的快速发展,电力需求日益增加,全社会总电力消费逐年增加,目前我国的发电量已经超过美国,取代其成为世界第一。我国煤炭资源丰富,这也决定了我国电力结构以煤炭发电为主,煤电在我国总发电量中长期占据70%以上。虽然煤电产业在提升国民经济方面起到了重要的作用,但是由于煤电本身具有高污染、高能耗以及高的负外部性等特点,在煤炭发电过程中会对大气、水、地表以及土壤环境等造成严重的污染问题,但是该部分外部成本没有被恰当考虑在其发电成本中。因此,我国在积极寻求降低煤电污染物排放的措施,除此之外,,我国也在不断调整电源结构,积极发展可再生能源发电方式,风力发电由于具有污染低、技术成熟等优势,而获得青睐并得到大力发展,但是与煤炭发电相比,风力发电成本较高。基于该现状,并在其他文献的基础上,本文从完全成本视角出发,以完全成本理论、外部成本理论以及产业竞争力相关理论等为基础,运用动态成本模型、影子定价法、敏感性分析、灰色预测模型、学习曲线模型、Bass模型以及常数替代模型地等研究方法对煤电与风电的竞争与替代问题进行深入研究。首先,基于动态成本模型对煤炭发电的内部成本进行梳理以及测算,然后对其存在的多重外部性问题进行识别和分析,构建外部性计量方法,以此得到煤电的完全成本。同样,通过对风力发电过程进行分析,得到风电成本的测算值,对这两种发电方式的完全成本进行比较可以发现,即使将煤电外部成本考虑进去,煤电依旧保持其成本优势。分别通过灰色预测模型和学习曲线模型对煤电与风电成本未来变动趋势进行预测和比较,发现在不考虑煤电外部成本的情况下,煤电与风电成本大致会在2026-2027年之间相持平;在考虑煤电外部成本的情况下,两者成本相持平时间提前6-8年的时间。然后,基于Bass模型对煤电与风电的发展过程进行了分析,发现风电在我国未来电力结构中占据不可取代的地位,并且通过风电对煤电的替代弹性研究,发现煤电价格的上升对于提升风电需求有积极影响。本研究为政府就电力问题制定政策提供依据,为发电企业和投资者进行决策提供意见,并使得我国电力行业得以持续发展,同时实现我国经济、能源、电力与环境的协调发展。
[Abstract]:The electric power industry plays a vital role in the development of our national economy. With the rapid development of our economy, the demand for electricity is increasing day by day, and the total power consumption of the whole society is increasing year by year. At present, the electricity generation in our country has surpassed that of the United States.Replace it as the first in the world.China is rich in coal resources, which determines that the main power structure in China is coal power generation, which accounts for more than 70% of the total electricity generation in China for a long time.Although the coal and electricity industry has played an important role in promoting the national economy, because of its characteristics of high pollution, high energy consumption, and high negative externalities, coal and electricity will affect the atmosphere and water in the process of coal power generation.The surface and soil environment cause serious pollution problems, but this part of the external cost is not properly considered in its power generation costs.Therefore, China is actively seeking measures to reduce the emission of pollutants from coal and electricity. In addition to this, China is also constantly adjusting the power supply structure, actively developing renewable energy generation methods, and wind power generation has the advantages of low pollution, mature technology, and so on.But the cost of wind power generation is higher than coal power generation.Based on the present situation and other literatures, this paper uses the dynamic cost model and shadow pricing method based on the complete cost theory, the external cost theory and the related theory of industrial competitiveness, from the perspective of complete cost.Sensitivity analysis, grey prediction model, learning curve model Bass model and constant substitution model are used to study the competition and substitution between coal and wind power.Firstly, the internal cost of coal power generation is combed and measured based on dynamic cost model, and then the multiple externalities are identified and analyzed, and the external measurement method is constructed to obtain the complete cost of coal power generation.In the same way, by analyzing the wind power generation process, the calculation value of wind power cost is obtained, and it is found that even if the external cost of coal and electricity is taken into account, the coal power still maintains its cost advantage.The grey prediction model and the learning curve model are used to predict and compare the future variation trend of coal power and wind power cost. It is found that the coal power and wind power cost will be approximately equal between 2026 and 2027 without considering the external cost of coal power.When considering the external cost of coal power, the time of equal cost is 6-8 years ahead of schedule.Then, based on the Bass model, the development process of coal power and wind power is analyzed, and it is found that wind power plays an irreplaceable role in the future power structure of our country.It is found that the rise of coal price has a positive effect on the increase of wind power demand.This study provides the basis for the government to formulate policies on the power problem, provides advice for the power generation enterprises and investors to make decisions, and makes the electric power industry of our country develop continuously, and realizes the coordinated development of economy, energy, electricity and environment in our country at the same time.
【学位授予单位】：中国矿业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.61

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