交直流混合微电网运行优化建模与不确定性分析

发布时间：2018-04-09 07:19

本文选题：交直流混合微电网　切入点：运行优化　出处：《电力系统自动化》2017年05期

【摘要】：交直流混合微电网的运行优化易受多种不确定性因素的影响,考虑不确定性因素影响下的微电网运行优化及分析各因素对运行优化影响程度并确定显著影响因素是目前值得研究的方向。文中分析并模拟了新能源出力随机性、负荷预测误差、电价波动、元件随机故障等不确定性因素,建立了考虑上述复合不确定性的交直流混合微电网运行优化模型,从经济性、环保性和可靠性三个方面构建系统运行优化评价指标体系,运用蒙特卡洛方法对系统评价指标模型进行分析并进行复合不确定性评价,得到各评价指标的概率分布及各不确定性因素对评价指标的影响权重。通过算例分析给出了对技术经济指标有显著影响的因素,为交直流混合微电网的运行优化及不确定性因素敏感性分析提供参考。
[Abstract]:The operation optimization of AC / DC hybrid microgrid is easily affected by many uncertain factors.Under the influence of uncertain factors, the operation optimization of microgrid and the analysis of the degree of influence of each factor on operation optimization and the determination of significant influence factors are worthy of study at present.This paper analyzes and simulates uncertain factors such as randomness of new energy sources, load forecasting error, fluctuation of electricity price, random fault of components, and establishes an optimal operation model of AC / DC hybrid microgrid considering the above complex uncertainties.The index system of system operation optimization evaluation is constructed in three aspects of environmental protection and reliability. The system evaluation index model is analyzed by Monte Carlo method and the complex uncertainty evaluation is carried out.The probability distribution of each evaluation index and the influence weight of each uncertain factor on the evaluation index are obtained.Through the example analysis, the factors which have significant influence on the technical and economic indexes are given, which provides a reference for the operation optimization and the sensitivity analysis of uncertain factors of AC / DC hybrid microgrid.
【作者单位】：安徽省新能源利用与节能实验室(合肥工业大学);
【基金】：国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)资助项目(2015AA050104)~~
【分类号】：TM732

【相似文献】