基于模糊综合评估的电网人因可靠性分析

发布时间：2018-04-10 04:01

本文选题：电网操作　切入点：人为因素　出处：《电力科学与技术学报》2017年03期

【摘要】：随着设备可靠性的不断提高,人为因素已经成为电力系统最主要的事故风险源之一。分析电网操作人因失误机理与影响因素,借鉴认知可靠性和误差分析方法(CREAM)的通用效能条件(CPC)及其4种控制模式的边界条件,提出一种基于模糊综合评判的电网操作人因可靠性定量分析方法,完整给出评估步骤及方法。算例结果表明,所提方法可以综合考虑环境情况、操作任务、人员安排等多项因素,量化评估当前电网操作任务的人因安全状态与人因可靠性水平,有利于克服操作人员自我感觉良好的倾向,对促进电网运行操作可靠性的提高具有实际意义。
[Abstract]:With the continuous improvement of equipment reliability, human factors have become one of the most important accident risk sources in power system.This paper analyzes the mechanism and influencing factors of power grid operators' fault, and draws lessons from the general efficiency conditions of the cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) and the boundary conditions of its four control modes.A quantitative analysis method of power network operator reliability based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is presented, and the evaluation steps and methods are given.The results show that the proposed method can take into account many factors, such as environment, operation task, personnel arrangement and so on, and quantitatively evaluate the human safety state and human factor reliability level of the current power grid operation task.It is beneficial to overcome the tendency of the operators to feel good about themselves, and has practical significance to improve the reliability of power grid operation.
【作者单位】：广东电网发展研究院有限责任公司;浙江大学电气工程学院;
【基金】：国家高技术研究发展计划(“863”计划)(2015AA050204) 浙江省自然科学基金(LZ12E07002)
【分类号】：TM732

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