电力系统安全风险与脆弱性分析评估方法

发布时间：2018-04-16 23:00

本文选题：典型电网 + 风险评估　；参考：《华北电力大学(北京)》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：由于电力系统运行的不稳定性,造成大面积停电事故的风险较高。而大面积停电事故会造成工厂停产、机器停止运行,给经济带来巨大的损失,也会给人民的生活造成严重的负面影响。因此,保障电网的运行安全,逐步消除停电事故,是一项十分重要的工作。本文研究电力系统安全风险与脆弱性分析评估方法,论证电力系统安全风险与脆弱性分析评估工作的必要性,进行电力系统安全风险评估指标体系的探索和研究,对电力安全风险与脆弱性分析评估工作的总体框架设计、评估流程、评估内容等工作进行研究,为电力安全监管工作提供依据。研究具体任务包括以下三部分:首先是电力系统安全风险与脆弱性分析评估的可行性研究。根据我国电力安全生产现状、电力系统结构和运行特点及电力安全管理工作情况,研究电力系统安全风险与脆弱性分析评估的可行性,论证电力系统安全风险与脆弱性分析评估工作的必要性和重要意义。其次是电力系统安全风险与脆弱性分析评估指标体系研究。开展电力安全风险与脆弱性分析评估理论和评价体系研究,建立能够准确、直观描述电力安全状况和脆弱环节的评价指标体系。本指标体系最终选取了3个一级指标(结构风险、技术风险、设备风险)、下面包括多个二级指标、三级指标和四级指标,结合Delphi Method方法(专家调查方法),给出了指标计算公式,对各个指标间的权重进行相应的计算。最后是试点应用。在广东省区进行试点,运用研究提出的评价体系评估电力安全状态,验证评价体系的科学性、可行性。并且对评估结果进行了分析和说明,研究了其结构薄弱性、技术薄弱性和设备薄弱性,为其当地改善电网风险指标提出了建议和意见。
[Abstract]:Because of the instability of power system, the risk of large area blackout is high.However, a large area of power outages will result in the shutdown of factories and the shutdown of machines, which will bring huge losses to the economy, and will also cause a serious negative impact on the lives of the people.Therefore, it is a very important job to ensure the safety of power grid operation and gradually eliminate power outages.This paper studies the analysis and evaluation method of power system security risk and vulnerability, demonstrates the necessity of power system security risk and vulnerability analysis and assessment, and explores and studies the power system security risk assessment index system.In order to provide the basis for the supervision of electric power safety, this paper studies the overall framework design, evaluation process and content of power security risk and vulnerability analysis and assessment.The specific task includes the following three parts: firstly, the feasibility study of power system security risk and vulnerability analysis.According to the present situation of electric power safety production in China, the structure and operation characteristics of power system, and the working situation of electric power safety management, the feasibility of analyzing and evaluating the safety risk and vulnerability of power system is studied.The necessity and significance of power system security risk and vulnerability analysis and assessment are demonstrated.Secondly, the research of power system security risk and vulnerability analysis and evaluation index system.The theory and evaluation system of power security risk and vulnerability analysis and evaluation are studied to establish an evaluation index system which can accurately and intuitively describe the power security situation and vulnerable links.In this index system, three primary indexes (structural risk, technical risk, equipment risk) are finally selected. The following include several secondary indexes, three grade indexes and four grade indexes. Combined with Delphi Method method (expert investigation method), the formula of index calculation is given.The weights of each index are calculated accordingly.Finally, the pilot application.A pilot project was carried out in Guangdong Province, and the evaluation system was used to evaluate the electric power security status and to verify the scientific and feasibility of the evaluation system.The evaluation results are analyzed and explained, and the structural weakness, technical weakness and equipment weakness are studied, and suggestions and suggestions are put forward for the local improvement of power grid risk indicators.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TM73

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