基于马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛方法的光伏电站可靠性评估

发布时间：2018-04-17 17:35

本文选题：光伏电站 + 可靠性评估　；参考：《高电压技术》2017年03期

【摘要】：为了对大型光伏电站进行可靠性评估,首先建立了光伏电站各主要元件的可靠性评估模型,然后定义了光伏电站可靠性评价指标体系,最后采用马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛(MCMC)方法对光伏电站可靠性进行了评估。在光伏阵列建模过程中,以误差作为限制条件采用向后场景削减技术对其状态进行了削减和划分,在保证一定精度的同时简化了抽样过程。通过对某大型光伏电站可靠性评估算例,对比分析了MCMC方法和蒙特卡洛(MC)法的指标计算结果、收敛速度和稳定性,结果验证了该方法的评估结果与MC方法结果一致,在相同的收敛条件下所需抽样次数更少,速度更快。
[Abstract]:In order to evaluate the reliability of large photovoltaic power station, the reliability evaluation model of the main components of photovoltaic power station is established, and then the reliability evaluation index system of photovoltaic power station is defined.Finally, the reliability of photovoltaic power station is evaluated by Markov chain Monte Carlo method.In the process of photovoltaic array modeling, the state of photovoltaic array is reduced and partitioned by backward scene reduction technique with error as the limiting condition, which simplifies the sampling process while ensuring certain accuracy.Through the reliability evaluation example of a large photovoltaic power station, the calculation results of MCMC method and Monte Carlo method are compared and analyzed. The convergence rate and stability of the method are compared. The results show that the evaluation results of this method are consistent with those of MC method.Under the same convergence condition, the sampling times are less and the speed is faster.
【作者单位】：华北电力大学新能源电力系统国家重点实验室;中国电力科学研究院;
【基金】：国家电网公司科技项目:太阳能发电多元综合数据平台及应用技术研究~~
【分类号】：TM615

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