一种含风电场的发电系统可靠性解析计算方法

发布时间：2018-05-23 15:33

本文选题：发电系统 + 风电场　；参考：《中国电机工程学报》2017年16期

【摘要】：基于马尔科夫链,提出一种含风电场的发电系统可靠性解析计算方法,该方法综合考虑风电场风速波动的随机性及不同类型风电机组故障的影响,将可用容量状态概率及增量频率的应用从机组、负荷拓展到对风电场可用容量的分析中,分别构建常规发电机、负荷及风电场可用容量的概率及频率分布(函数)。通过应用该方法,包括概率型、频率及持续时间型等指标在内的含风电场的发电系统可靠性指标可完全由概率及频率分布函数的卷积和加法运算得到,使得含风电场的发电系统可靠性评估变得简洁和方便。此外,还提出优化随机变量状态聚类数取值的方法,以提高基于马尔科夫链对多状态时序随机变量进行建模的准确性。最后,对修改后的IEEE-RTS79测试系统进行评估分析,说明方法的有效性,结果表明该方法能快速准确地实现含风电场的发电系统可靠性评估。
[Abstract]:Based on Markov chain, an analytical calculation method for reliability of power generation system with wind farm is proposed, which considers the randomness of wind speed fluctuation in wind farm and the influence of different types of wind turbine faults. The application of available capacity state probability and incremental frequency is extended from unit and load to the analysis of available capacity of wind farm, and the probability and frequency distribution of conventional generator, load and available capacity of wind farm are constructed respectively. By applying this method, the reliability index of power generation system with wind farm, including probability type, frequency type and duration type, can be obtained by convolution and addition of probability and frequency distribution function. The reliability evaluation of power generation system with wind farm is simple and convenient. In addition, a method of optimizing the number of random variables by state clustering is proposed to improve the accuracy of modeling multi-state random variables based on Markov chain. Finally, the modified IEEE-RTS79 test system is evaluated and analyzed, and the effectiveness of the method is illustrated. The results show that the method can quickly and accurately evaluate the reliability of the power generation system with wind farm.
【作者单位】：上海交通大学电气工程系;国网上海市电力公司;
【基金】：国家863高技术研究发展计划项目(2015AA050203) 国家电网公司科技项目(520900150037)~~
【分类号】：TM614;TM732

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