基于布谷鸟优化的地区电网投资规模测算研究

发布时间：2018-06-05 00:35

本文选题：电网投资 + 布谷鸟优化　；参考：《华北电力大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：电力能源是与国计民生息息相关的基础性能源,伴随着社会经济的快速增长以及生活水平的大幅提高,电能消费呈现持续增长的趋势,而在供给侧角度,为了实现节能减排目标,要求终端能源结构进行优化,电力能源是二次能源,具有清洁无污染,高效率的特性,正因为这些特性,在未来的能源消耗中电力能源所占的比例会大幅提高。而电力能源消费的增加必然要求加强电网建设,电网是电力能源消费的载体和基础途径,电网的建设发展必须与电力能源消费增长趋势保持一致。为了保证电力能源消费的稳步提升就必须完善电网建设,电网投资活动对国民经济的提高以及社会的稳定发展具有重要作用。只有科学的电网建设投资决策才能建立最适合电力发展需要的电网设施,所以电网投资决策是电力能源消费的基础。为了保证电能消费的稳步增长以及电网的安全运行,必须对电网投资的相关理论与方法进行深入研究,分析与其他行业相比其独有的特点,建立最科学的电网投资测算体系,从而达到规范电网企业投资行为的目的。此外研究投资测算体系对于决策风险的降低、决策水平的提高、投资效益的提升以及企业可持续发展能力的增强具有重要作用本文主要从社会,经济,环境,电力市场四个方面分析电网投资的影响因素,在研究阅读大量文献的基础上,梳理各个文献中所列出的电网投资影响因素,对这些因素进行分析汇总,剔除与现代经济发展不相适宜的因素,并根据现代经济发展,政治发展,电网发展趋势加入新的影响因素,最后将所有经过初选的影响因素作为本文的初选因素集;确定初选因素集之后就要分析选取关键影响因素,从初选因素集中筛选出对电网投资有着重要影响的若干数据,本文选择灰色关联度方法选择关键影响因素,通过计算初选因素集中每个因素与电网投资的关联度,依据关联度大小选择前六个对电网投资影响最大的因素组成关键因素集;然后采用基于布谷鸟算法优化的支持向量机的模型测算关键影响因素的值。下一步是依次将关键因素与投资额结合建立电网投资测算仿真模型,并计算每个模型的误差值,将误差最小的仿真模型作为最终电网测算模型。最后将关键因素的预测值代入选定的模型中对电网投资额进行测算。通过实际案例仿真研究,证明该方法测算的精准度有很大的提高。本文测算结果的精确性对实际操作的电网投资有一定的借鉴作用。
[Abstract]:Power energy is the basic energy which is closely related to the national economy and people's livelihood. With the rapid growth of social economy and the substantial improvement of living standard, the electric energy consumption shows a trend of continuous growth, while on the supply side, In order to achieve the goal of energy saving and emission reduction, the terminal energy structure should be optimized. The power energy is a secondary energy source, which has the characteristics of clean, pollution-free, high efficiency, and because of these characteristics, The share of electric energy in future energy consumption will increase dramatically. The increase of power energy consumption will inevitably require the strengthening of power grid construction. Power grid is the carrier and basic way of power energy consumption. The construction and development of power grid must be consistent with the increasing trend of power energy consumption. In order to ensure the steady improvement of power energy consumption, it is necessary to perfect the power grid construction. The grid investment plays an important role in the improvement of the national economy and the stable development of the society. Only scientific investment decision of power grid construction can set up the most suitable power grid facilities for the development of electric power, so the investment decision of power grid is the basis of power energy consumption. In order to ensure the steady growth of electric energy consumption and the safe operation of power grid, it is necessary to deeply study the relevant theories and methods of grid investment, analyze its unique characteristics compared with other industries, and establish the most scientific power grid investment measurement system. In order to achieve the goal of standardizing the investment behavior of power grid enterprises. In addition, the study of investment measurement system plays an important role in the reduction of decision-making risk, the improvement of decision-making level, the improvement of investment benefit and the enhancement of enterprises' ability of sustainable development. This paper mainly focuses on the social, economic and environmental aspects. On the basis of studying and reading a large number of literatures, this paper analyzes the influence factors of power grid investment in four aspects of power market, and analyzes and summarizes these factors. The factors that are not suitable for the development of modern economy are eliminated, and according to the development of modern economy, political development and power grid development, new influencing factors are added. Finally, all the factors that have passed the primary election are taken as the primary factors set in this paper. After determining the primary factor set, it is necessary to analyze and select the key influencing factors. Some data which have important influence on the power grid investment are selected from the primary selection factor concentration. In this paper, the grey correlation degree method is chosen to select the key influencing factors. By calculating the correlation degree between each factor and the power grid investment, the key factor set is composed of the first six factors which have the greatest influence on the power grid investment according to the correlation degree. Then the support vector machine model based on cuckoo algorithm is used to calculate the value of key factors. The next step is to combine the key factors with the investment to establish the simulation model of power network investment and calculate the error value of each model. The simulation model with the minimum error is regarded as the final network calculation model. Finally, the forecast value of key factors is added to the selected model to calculate the power grid investment. The simulation results show that the accuracy of the method is greatly improved. The accuracy of the calculation results in this paper can be used as a reference for the actual operation of power grid investment.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.61

【参考文献】