两阶段随机排队论应用于区域电力能源系统规划

发布时间：2018-07-04 12:53

本文选题：电力能源 + 决策　；参考：《华北电力大学(北京)》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：与太阳能、风能、潮汐能等可再生能源相比,化石能源由于开发技术成熟且具有更好的经济性,在发电中得到了广泛应用。其中,燃煤火力发电占整个化石能源发电的50%以上。因此,科学有效的国家或者区域电力能源系统规划就显得非常必要。在电力能源系统中,能源的开采、运输及利用等各个环节都存在着大量的复杂性和不确定性,这些复杂性和不确定性能够直接影响电力能源系统的优化,决策方案的产生,电力能源系统的稳定性和安全性。因此,必须开发出科学合理的不确定性规划方法,来处理电力能源系统规划中的不确定性和复杂性问题。本研究基于耦合随机排队论(SQ)和区间两阶段随机规划(ITSP),开发了一个两阶段随机排队论规划模型(TSQP),用来解决电力能源系统中普遍存在的复杂性和不确定性问题。TSQP模型既可以解决实际规划中参数是已知概率分布的随机值和区间值带来的不确定性问题,也可以反映随机排队带来的不确定性问题。该模型被应用于一个案例研究中,验证了该模型的可行性。由于排队过程中到达率和服务率是随机的,所以该模型的计算结果是区间值,会产生不同的购煤方案,不同的等待成本,不同的系统成本。TSQP模型不仅可以帮助决策者获得不同时期最佳的资源分配方案,还可以帮助决策者深入洞察不确定性条件下随机排队现象对电力能源系统产生的影响,为决策者提供科学的决策支持。
[Abstract]:Compared with renewable energy such as solar energy, wind energy and tidal energy, fossil energy has been widely used in power generation because of its mature technology and better economy. Among them, coal-fired thermal power generation accounted for more than 50% of the total fossil power generation. Therefore, scientific and effective national or regional power energy system planning is very necessary. In the power energy system, the exploitation, transportation and utilization of energy have a large amount of complexity and uncertainty, which can directly affect the optimization of the power energy system and the generation of decision-making schemes. Stability and safety of power systems. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a scientific and reasonable uncertainty programming method to deal with the uncertainty and complexity of power energy system planning. Based on coupled stochastic queuing theory (sq) and interval two-stage stochastic programming (ITSP), a two-stage stochastic queuing programming model (TSQP) is developed to solve the complex and uncertain problems in power energy systems. Can solve the uncertainty problem caused by the random value of known probability distribution and the interval value in the actual programming. It can also reflect the uncertainty caused by random queuing. The model is applied to a case study to verify the feasibility of the model. Because the arrival rate and service rate in the queuing process are random, the calculation result of the model is interval value, which will produce different coal purchase schemes and different waiting costs. Different system cost. TSQP models can not only help decision makers to obtain the best resource allocation scheme in different periods, but also help decision makers to gain insight into the impact of random queuing on power energy systems under uncertain conditions. Provide scientific decision support for decision makers.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F426.61;TM715

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