基于故障案例的变压器风险评估体系研究

发布时间：2018-07-11 11:54

本文选题：变压器 + 风险评估　；参考：《华北电力大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,随着我国经济的持续高速发展和人民生活水平的不断提高,我国各地的电能需求量大大增加。我国电网进入了高速发展的阶段。在电网快速发展的背景下,保证电网安全可靠性运行变得至关重要。电网安全运行主要包括两个方面即电力设备的安全可靠运行和系统的稳定性,而电力设备的安全可靠运行是整个电网安全的第一道防线。变压器是电力设备中重要的设备之一,其安全可靠性对整个电网的意义重大。变压器故障将造成的很大的损失,加之其维修周期长、维修费用昂贵,所以对变压器进行风险评估,识别可能存在的各类风险、以及这些风险带给变压器的影响,进而采取相应的防范措施不仅可以有效的降低变压器的故障概率、提高整个变压器运行维护水平,对保证电网的安全运行也具有重要的价值。针对变压器故障复杂的特点,本文引入故障树分析法对变压器定量风险评估。首先,本文统计了大量的典型变压器故障案例、综合考虑了多方面风险因素,在此基础上建立了变压器故障树,然后提出对电力变压器风险评估时结合各事件的重要度,并在用模糊层次分析法求解各个事件的重要度的过程中引入了粒子群优化算法的思想,通过粒子间信息共享能准确快捷的找到最优权重,大大提高了评估效果。最后本文对一台220kV变压器进行了风险评估,验证了基于故障树分析法变压器风险评估模型的有效性。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid development of economy and the improvement of people's living standard, the demand for electric energy is increasing greatly. China's power grid has entered the stage of rapid development. With the rapid development of power grid, it is very important to ensure the safe and reliable operation of power grid. The safe operation of power grid mainly includes two aspects, that is, the safe and reliable operation of power equipment and the stability of the system, and the safe and reliable operation of power equipment is the first line of defense for the security of the whole power network. Transformer is one of the important equipments in power equipment, and its safety and reliability is of great significance to the whole power network. Transformer failure will cause a lot of losses, combined with its long maintenance cycle, high maintenance costs, so the transformer risk assessment, identify the possible types of risks, and the impact of these risks on the transformer, The corresponding preventive measures can not only effectively reduce the fault probability of the transformer, improve the operation and maintenance level of the whole transformer, but also have an important value to ensure the safe operation of the power network. In view of the complex characteristics of transformer faults, this paper introduces fault tree analysis method to assess the quantitative risk of transformers. First of all, a large number of typical transformer fault cases are counted, and various risk factors are considered synthetically. Based on this, a transformer fault tree is established, and then the importance of combining the various events in the risk assessment of power transformer is proposed. The idea of particle swarm optimization algorithm is introduced in the process of using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to solve the importance of each event. The optimal weight can be found accurately and quickly by sharing information between particles, which greatly improves the evaluation effect. Finally, the risk assessment of a 220 kV transformer is carried out, and the validity of the transformer risk assessment model based on fault tree analysis is verified.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TM41

【参考文献】