考虑风—光Copula相关性的电力系统运行风险评估
发布时间：2018-11-12 14:09
【摘要】：风能和太阳能的大规模接入为电力系统的调度和运行带来巨大挑战。在实际系统中,区域气候的相似性使得风电和光伏发电出力往往具有一定相关性。如何有效地描述这种相关性为电力系统调度运行人员准确评估当前系统运行面临的风险,具有十分重要的意义。本文在综合国内外研究现状的基础上,首先介绍了独立变量形式下风电和光伏出力随机性的常用描述方法。在此基础上,引入了Copula函数描述风电和光伏发电出力的相关性,并从三个不同的角度给出了选择风-光出力的Copula相关性模型方法,基于实际数据的算例对此进行了验证。随后,将风-光出力的Copula相关性模型应用到电力系统运行风险评估中,结合蒙特卡洛模拟和基于概率距离的场景消除法获取风电和光伏发电出力的典型场景;基于场景分析的方法,对含风电和光伏发电的电力系统运行风险进行评估,构建了考虑风-光相关性的运行风险评估的实现框架和流程,并从节点电压越限、线路功率越限以及失负荷三个方面建立了电力系统运行风险的评估指标体系。给出的IEEE24节点系统算例验证了本文所提模型和方法是有效的,且对于含相关性风电和光伏发电的电力系统开展运行风险评估时,考虑风-光出力的相关性能够使电网运行风险评估的结果更贴近实际,为电力系统调度运行人员的有效决策提供重要的分析工具。
[Abstract]:The large-scale access of wind and solar energy brings great challenges to the dispatching and operation of power system. In the actual system, the similarity of regional climate makes wind power and photovoltaic power generation often have a certain correlation. How to describe this correlation effectively is of great significance for power system dispatching operators to accurately evaluate the risks faced by the current system operation. Based on the research situation at home and abroad, this paper first introduces the common methods of describing the randomness of wind power and photovoltaic force in the form of independent variables. On this basis, the Copula function is introduced to describe the correlation between wind power and photovoltaic power generation, and the Copula correlation model method for selecting wind and light output forces is presented from three different angles, which is verified by an example based on actual data. Then, the Copula correlation model of wind-light force is applied to the risk assessment of power system operation, and the typical scenarios of wind power and photovoltaic power generation are obtained by combining Monte Carlo simulation and scene elimination method based on probabilistic distance. Based on the method of scene analysis, the operational risk of power system with wind power and photovoltaic power generation is evaluated, and the implementation framework and process of operational risk assessment considering wind and light correlation are constructed, and the threshold of node voltage is exceeded. The evaluation index system of power system operation risk is established in three aspects: line power limit and loss of load. An example of IEEE24 node system is given to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model and method, and the operation risk assessment for the power system with associated wind power and photovoltaic power generation is carried out. Considering the correlation between wind and light forces, the results of risk assessment of power grid operation can be more practical and provide an important analysis tool for the effective decision of dispatching operators in power system.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：TM732
[Abstract]:The large-scale access of wind and solar energy brings great challenges to the dispatching and operation of power system. In the actual system, the similarity of regional climate makes wind power and photovoltaic power generation often have a certain correlation. How to describe this correlation effectively is of great significance for power system dispatching operators to accurately evaluate the risks faced by the current system operation. Based on the research situation at home and abroad, this paper first introduces the common methods of describing the randomness of wind power and photovoltaic force in the form of independent variables. On this basis, the Copula function is introduced to describe the correlation between wind power and photovoltaic power generation, and the Copula correlation model method for selecting wind and light output forces is presented from three different angles, which is verified by an example based on actual data. Then, the Copula correlation model of wind-light force is applied to the risk assessment of power system operation, and the typical scenarios of wind power and photovoltaic power generation are obtained by combining Monte Carlo simulation and scene elimination method based on probabilistic distance. Based on the method of scene analysis, the operational risk of power system with wind power and photovoltaic power generation is evaluated, and the implementation framework and process of operational risk assessment considering wind and light correlation are constructed, and the threshold of node voltage is exceeded. The evaluation index system of power system operation risk is established in three aspects: line power limit and loss of load. An example of IEEE24 node system is given to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model and method, and the operation risk assessment for the power system with associated wind power and photovoltaic power generation is carried out. Considering the correlation between wind and light forces, the results of risk assessment of power grid operation can be more practical and provide an important analysis tool for the effective decision of dispatching operators in power system.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：TM732
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1 余萍,龚金国;描述金融市场相关结构的一种新工具——Copula[J];东莞理工学院学报;2005年05期
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