计及新能源的地区电力系统能源效率评估及影响因素分析

发布时间：2019-01-04 14:39

【摘要】：随着大规模新能源接入电力系统,传统火力发电所占比例逐渐下降,对整个电力系统的能源效率产生了较大影响。同时在世界能源消耗不断增长和环保压力日益加剧的背景下,能源效率问题越来越受到人们的关注。电力系统传统的主要考虑经济效益的评价方式已经不能满足需要,如何从技术、经济、环境各方面综合评估电力系统能源效率成为一个亟待解决的问题。本文在现有能源效率研究基础上,构建电力系统能源效率指标体系,分别建立基于层次分析法和数据包络分析(DEA)方法的电力系统能源效率评估模型,并以实际地区电力系统为例进行能源效率评估和影响因素分析。论文的主要研究内容如下:(1)分析了目前与能源效率评估相关的研究现状,给出电力系统能源效率的定义,确定指标的选取原则,从基于新能源产业导向的能源技术效率、能源经济效率和能源环境效率三方面建立电力系统能源效率指标体系。(2)提出了电力系统综合能源效率评估模型,分析电力系统能源效率的影响因素。首先利用Min-max标准化法对指标进行归一化处理,根据专家意见和层次分析法建立电力系统综合能源效率(Comprehensive Energy Efficiency,简称CEE)评估模型;以某地区电力系统为例,评估分析了其系统的综合能源效率;分析了影响地区电力系统能源效率的主要因素,以及各因素带来的系统能源效率提升空间,最后给出了提升电力系统能源效率的措施建议。(3)提出了基于DEA方法的地区电力系统能源效率评估模型。首先根据DEA模型的基本理论,选取指标体系中的逆向指标、正向指标分别作为评估模型的输入量和输出量,建立基于CCR(A.Charnes W.W.Cooper E.Rhodes)和超效率CCR的能源效率评估模型。以某实例地区电力系统为例,分别采用上述两个模型评估分析其能源效率。(4)基于风电出力典型场景,分析地区电力系统超效率CCR能源效率。首先根据风电出力和负荷的皮尔逊相关系数,分析地区风电出力的特性,选择逆调峰特性相似且出现频次最多的风电出力作为典型场景,基于该典型场景估算出风力发电量,进而采用超效率CCR模型分析电力系统能源效率,比较利用CEE模型和超效率CCR模型分析能源效率影响因素的不同结果。
[Abstract]:With the large-scale new energy connected to the power system, the proportion of traditional thermal power generation is decreasing gradually, which has a great impact on the energy efficiency of the whole power system. At the same time, under the background of increasing energy consumption and increasing environmental pressure, energy efficiency has attracted more and more attention. The traditional evaluation methods of power system mainly consider economic benefits can not meet the needs. How to comprehensively evaluate the energy efficiency of power system from the aspects of technology, economy and environment has become an urgent problem to be solved. In this paper, based on the existing energy efficiency research, the energy efficiency index system of power system is constructed, and the power system energy efficiency evaluation model based on AHP and (DEA) method is established respectively. The energy efficiency evaluation and the analysis of the influencing factors are carried out by taking the actual power system as an example. The main contents of this paper are as follows: (1) the current research situation related to energy efficiency evaluation is analyzed, the definition of energy efficiency in power system is given, the selection principle of index is determined, and the energy technology efficiency based on new energy industry is analyzed. The index system of energy efficiency of power system is established in three aspects: energy economic efficiency and energy environment efficiency. (2) the comprehensive energy efficiency evaluation model of power system is put forward, and the influencing factors of power system energy efficiency are analyzed. Firstly, the Min-max standardization method is used to normalize the index, and according to expert opinion and analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the evaluation model of power system comprehensive energy efficiency (Comprehensive Energy Efficiency, (CEE) is established. Taking the power system of a certain area as an example, the comprehensive energy efficiency of the system is evaluated and analyzed. The main factors affecting the energy efficiency of regional power system and the space for improving the energy efficiency of the system brought by each factor are analyzed. Finally, the measures to improve the energy efficiency of the power system are proposed. (3) the energy efficiency evaluation model of the regional power system based on the DEA method is proposed. First of all, according to the basic theory of DEA model, the reverse index in the index system is selected, and the positive index is used as the input and output of the evaluation model, respectively. The energy efficiency evaluation model based on CCR (A.Charnes W.Cooper E.Rhodes) and super efficient CCR is established. The energy efficiency is evaluated by the two models mentioned above. (4) based on the typical scenario of wind power generation, the super-efficiency CCR energy efficiency of local power system is analyzed. Firstly, according to Pearson correlation coefficient of wind power output and load, the characteristics of wind power output in the region are analyzed, and the wind power output with similar inverse peak-shaving characteristics and the highest frequency is selected as the typical scenario, and the wind power generation is estimated based on this typical scenario. Then the super-efficiency CCR model is used to analyze the energy efficiency of the power system, and the different results of the energy efficiency influencing factors are analyzed by using the CEE model and the super-efficiency CCR model.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TM711

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