基于精确隐性故障模型的输电系统连锁故障风险评估

发布时间：2019-01-18 14:15

【摘要】：针对继电保护隐性故障进行研究,改进了现有的隐性故障模型,并在此基础上评估了保护隐性故障造成连锁故障的运行风险。首先根据不同隐性故障造成保护不正确动作概率的不同,将隐性故障详细分类,建立了隐性故障概率模型;其次应用置信规则库,建立考虑环境和系统潮流影响的保护系统马尔可夫模型,将隐性故障概率模型和马尔可夫模型结合,建立精确隐性故障模型。再次,根据隐性故障造成连锁故障的传播机理,建立连锁故障模型,并从概率、网络结构、能量损失3个角度建立相关的严重度指标。最后,将模型应用于IEEE-118系统,通过对比传统隐性故障模型和文中所提精确隐性故障模型所得风险评估结果,验证了所提精确隐性故障模型更加贴合实际,其风险评估结果更加真实可靠。
[Abstract]:Based on the research of hidden fault of relay protection, the existing hidden fault model is improved, and the risk of cascading fault caused by hidden fault of protection is evaluated. Firstly, according to the different probability of incorrect protection caused by different hidden faults, the hidden faults are classified in detail, and the hidden fault probability model is established. Secondly, the Markov model of protection system considering the influence of environment and system power flow is established by using the confidence rule base, and the exact hidden fault model is established by combining the hidden fault probability model with the Markov model. Thirdly, according to the propagation mechanism of hidden fault, the model of cascading fault is established, and the related severity index is established from three angles: probability, network structure and energy loss. Finally, the model is applied to IEEE-118 system. By comparing the traditional hidden fault model with the exact hidden fault model proposed in this paper, the risk assessment results show that the proposed exact hidden fault model is more practical. The risk assessment results are more reliable.
【作者单位】：智能电网教育部重点实验室(天津大学);国网天津市电力公司;中国电力科学研究院;
【基金】：国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)项目(2015AA050102) 国家自然科学基金资助项目(51577129,51207103) 国家电网公司大电网重大专项资助项目(SGCC-MPLG028-2012) 天津市自然科学基金资助项目(14JCYBJC21000)~~
【分类号】：TM77

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