基于Markov模型的继电保护风险评估体系研究

发布时间：2019-03-06 16:54

【摘要】：随着我国社会经济及工业的迅速发展,电力系统在各方面支持下呈现出高效率、新科技、大容量、高电压、远距离、智能化等特点,电力系统用电量规模在高速提升,但同时电力系统自动化控制程度的复杂性也给其安全、可靠的电力供应过程带来了许多不稳定因素及风险,继电保护是整个供电体系中最为重要的一环,能否正常、稳定的工作,是保证用电可靠性的主要依据。本文针对传统风险评估和可靠性分析的不足,提出了基于10状态Markov模型的继电保护风险评估体系对可靠性和风险进行评估。采用理论分析、系统仿真、反馈校验的方法来实现,对继电保护的设计、安装、调试、运行、管理等各个环节进行深入研究,获得第一手的基础数据,包括原始数据、运行工况、检修数据、管理数据等,并利用基于时间序列的LS-SVM的大数据计算方法,构建基于三参数Weibull分布的继电保护装置时变失效率的模型计算各装置的失效率函数,最后利用研究结果对淮南市现有的继电保护系统进行风险评估,并进行结果检验与修正。本文在分析继电保护失效率的同时,给出了失效率函数的计算方法,针对继电保护失效率计算、风险评估、继电保护可靠性三个方面,讨论了对系统风险进行评估与提高可靠性的方法。根据实验结果对存在的潜在隐患及时发现并在最大程度上降低损失,使电网的管理水平得以提高,实现电网安全稳定运行。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of social economy and industry in our country, the power system has the characteristics of high efficiency, new science and technology, large capacity, high voltage, long distance, intelligence and so on. The power consumption scale of the power system is increasing at a high speed. But at the same time, the complexity of power system automation control also brings many unstable factors and risks to its safe and reliable power supply process. Relay protection is the most important link in the whole power supply system, whether it can be normal or not. Stable work is the main basis for ensuring the reliability of electricity. Aiming at the shortcomings of traditional risk assessment and reliability analysis, this paper proposes a 10-state Markov model-based relay protection risk assessment system to evaluate the reliability and risk. The methods of theoretical analysis, system simulation and feedback verification are adopted to carry out in-depth research on the design, installation, debugging, operation and management of relay protection, so as to obtain the first-hand basic data, including the original data, in-depth research on the design, installation, debugging, operation and management of relay protection. Operation condition, maintenance data, management data, etc., and by using big data calculation method based on time series LS-SVM, a model of time varying failure rate of relay protection device based on three parameter Weibull distribution is constructed to calculate the failure rate function of each device. Finally, the risk assessment of the existing relay protection system in Huainan City is carried out, and the results are tested and corrected. In this paper, while analyzing the failure rate of relay protection, the calculation method of failure rate function is given. The calculation of failure rate of relay protection, the assessment of risk and the reliability of relay protection are discussed. The methods to evaluate the system risk and improve the reliability are discussed. According to the experimental results, the potential hidden dangers are discovered in time and the loss is reduced to the maximum extent, so that the management level of the power grid can be improved and the safe and stable operation of the power network can be realized.
【学位授予单位】：安徽理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TM77

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