京津冀协同发展下河北省电力消费预测研究

发布时间：2019-04-27 17:28

【摘要】：一个国家或地区的经济增长和人民生活离不开电力的投入,充足可靠的电力消费供给是保障经济社会正常发展的重大宏观问题。随着经济发展进入新常态,国民经济开始从高速增长期向中高速平稳增长期过渡,经济转型带来高耗能产业耗电量比重的下降,影响电力行业的供需增速也进一步放缓。而在国家推动能源消费革命、加大节能减排力度的新形势下,电能替代将有利于提高电能在终端能源消费中所占的比重。并且,京津冀协同发展政策的施行和推进将对河北省及其电力发展密切相关的能源政策、产业结构、人口分布、环境生态等方面进行优化和调整,进而影响经济社会发展和用电量需求的变化。面对着经济新常态和电力供需矛盾显现的新形势,对河北省电力消费历史特征进行分析,定量探究其影响机制,并根据未来协同情景发展进行预测具有十分深远的意义。这将能够有利于更加科学合理地制定河北省电力能源规划和相关节能减排政策,在保障河北省电能安全及经济社会可持续发展的基础上,助力京津冀协同发展政策的顺利实施,保障京津电力消费需求安全,实现中长期的协同规划目标。首先,本文在梳理国内外研究现状的基础上,对电力消费及预测方法进行了分析阐述;进而,立足于京津冀协同发展政策,阐述了河北省功能定位,并对河北省电力消费及其影响因素进行了数理统计分析,深入剖析了各变量逐年变化情况及变化原因;在此基础上,利用LMDI分解模型从生产用电和生活用电两个角度,将河北省电力消费量分解为人口效应、经济规模效应、产业结构效应、生产电力消费强度、城镇化水平效应、居民消费效应和居民电力消费强度七个方面,并定量测算各因素对电力消费的贡献程度,得到正向驱动的因素主要有人口效应、经济规模效应、城镇化水平效应、居民消费效应,累计贡献率分别为15.07%、177.80%、4.8%、7.52%,负向驱动因素主要包括产业结构效应、生产电力消费强度、居民电力消费强度,贡献率为-80.32%、-24.26%、-4.81%。并依照结果分析各个因素对电力消费的影响机制,就此基于改进的人工蜂群算法构建相应的电力消费预测模型。最后,立足于京津冀协同发展,依据河北省发展的历史情况、相关规划政策定义了基准协同、规划协同和高度协同三种不同情景,并针对不同情景发展水平的不同设置了不同的人口、实际GDP、第二产业比重、电力消费强度、城镇化水平、居民消费水平等参数。而后利用对2015-2020年河北省电力消费量进行预测,得到到2020年,在基准协同情景下,河北省电力消费总量可达3947亿千瓦时。在规划协同情景下,总量达到4154亿千瓦时。在高度协同情景下,总量为4128亿千瓦时。
[Abstract]:The economic growth and people's life in a country or region can not be separated from the input of electricity. Sufficient and reliable power consumption and supply is a major macro-problem to guarantee the normal development of economy and society. With the economic development entering into the new normal, the national economy began to transition from high-speed growth period to medium-high-speed steady growth period. The economic transformation brought about a decrease in the proportion of power consumption of high-energy-consuming industries, which affected the supply and demand growth of the power industry further slowed down. Under the new situation of promoting energy consumption revolution and increasing energy saving and emission reduction, the substitution of electric energy will help to increase the proportion of electric energy in the end energy consumption. In addition, the implementation and promotion of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development policy will optimize and adjust the energy policy, industrial structure, population distribution, environment and ecology of Hebei Province and its power development, which are closely related to the development of Hebei Province. And then influence the development of economy and society and the change of electricity demand. Facing the new situation of the new economic normal and the contradiction between power supply and demand, it is of great significance to analyze the historical characteristics of power consumption in Hebei Province, to explore quantitatively its influence mechanism, and to predict the future coordinated development of electricity supply and demand. This will be conducive to a more scientific and rational formulation of the power energy plan and related energy conservation and emission reduction policies in Hebei Province, and on the basis of ensuring the energy security and sustainable economic and social development of Hebei Province, will help the smooth implementation of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development policy. To ensure the security of Beijing-Tianjin power consumption demand and achieve the long-and medium-term coordinated planning goals. First of all, on the basis of combing the current research situation at home and abroad, this paper analyzes and expounds the power consumption and forecasting methods. Then, based on the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cooperation development policy, this paper expounds the function orientation of Hebei Province, and carries on the mathematical statistics analysis to the power consumption and its influence factors of Hebei Province, and deeply analyzes the changes of each variable year by year and the reason of the change. On this basis, the power consumption in Hebei Province is divided into population effect, economic scale effect, industrial structure effect, production power consumption intensity and urbanization level effect from the perspective of production electricity and domestic electricity consumption by using LMDI decomposition model. There are seven aspects of resident consumption effect and power consumption intensity, and quantitatively calculate the contribution degree of each factor to power consumption. The positive driving factors are population effect, economic scale effect, urbanization level effect, and the positive driving factors are population effect, economic scale effect and urbanization level effect. The cumulative contribution rate of resident consumption effect is 15.07%, 177.80%, 4.8%, 7.52% respectively. The negative driving factors mainly include industrial structure effect, production power consumption intensity, and resident power consumption intensity. The contribution rate was-80.32%, 24.26% and 4.81% respectively. According to the results, the influence mechanism of each factor on power consumption is analyzed, and the corresponding forecasting model of power consumption is constructed based on the improved artificial bee colony algorithm. Finally, based on the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei collaborative development, according to the historical situation of Hebei development, the relevant planning policies define three different scenarios: benchmark synergy, planning synergy and high synergy. Different population, actual GDP, secondary industry proportion, power consumption intensity, urbanization level, resident consumption level and other parameters are set up according to the different development level of different scenarios. Then the electric power consumption in Hebei Province from 2015 to 2020 is predicted. By 2020, the total electricity consumption in Hebei Province can reach 394.7 billion kwh under the base synergetic scenario. In the planning coordination scenario, the total amount of 415.4 billion kilowatt-hours. In a highly collaborative scenario, the total amount is 412.8 billion kWh.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.61

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