我国电力市场评价指标和方法研究

发布时间：2019-04-30 12:34

【摘要】：我国2015年开启新一轮电力市场化改革,目前正处于电力市场建设方案规划和设计阶段,亟需建立电力市场评价体系,用于对电力市场设计方案的评估以及方案实施后的评价。由于电力体制、经济社会和电力工业发展状况不同,各个国家和地区的电力市场也有所差异,所采用的市场评价体系也不尽相同。本文首先综述了国内外电力市场评价体系以及相关的综合评价方法,介绍了本文的研究思路及相应的研究内容,确定了适合我国电力市场建设的方向性评价指标,以此为基础,建立了相应的适合我国的电力市场评价体系。本文按照定性指标和定量指标的结构,建立了电力市场评价指标体系,其中,定性指标包括市场无歧视性指标、市场监管能力、市场建设方案的完备性、市场技术支持能力、是否针对本地区具体问题提出解决方案;定量指标包括市场集中度指标、市场运行指标、环境可持续发展指标、市场经济性指标。在建立评价指标体系的基础上,本文采用了两种评价方法对电力市场进行评价。对于初期电力市场设计方案,可采用基于“合理—可行—效率”三个层次的综合评价方法,在满足合理性原则、可行性原则的基础上,选择效率最优的电力市场设计方案作为推荐实施方案;对于成熟电力市场的综合评价,本文采用了基于模糊评价和层次分析法的综合评价方法,模糊评价量化了定性评价指标和定量评价指标,层次分析法确定各指标的权重值,进而在公平、效率、风险规避、可操作性、问题导向性五个维度对电力市场进行评价。本文最后对比分析了广东电力市场新旧交易结算规则,并且基于广东电力市场实际集中竞价交易结果,模拟出了供需双方价差电量申报曲线,进而得到新旧规则下的交易结果,通过对比交易结果,分析了新旧交易规则的特点,并且通过交易结果可知,广东电力市场供方市场力较弱。
[Abstract]:China started a new round of electricity market reform in 2015 and is in the stage of power market construction plan planning and design. It is urgent to establish the power market evaluation system for the evaluation of power market design scheme and the evaluation after the implementation of the scheme. Because of the different development of electric power system, economic society and electric power industry, different countries and regions have different power market, and the market evaluation system is also different. This paper first summarizes the domestic and foreign power market evaluation system and related comprehensive evaluation methods, introduces the research ideas and corresponding research contents of this paper, and determines the directional evaluation index suitable for the construction of the power market in China, which is based on this. The corresponding evaluation system of electric power market suitable for our country has been established. According to the structure of qualitative index and quantitative index, the evaluation index system of electric power market is established. The qualitative index includes market non-discrimination index, market supervision ability, the completeness of market construction scheme, and the ability of market technical support. Whether to propose solutions to specific problems in the region; Quantitative indexes include market concentration index, market operation index, environmental sustainable development index and market economy index. On the basis of establishing the evaluation index system, this paper adopts two evaluation methods to evaluate the electricity market. For the initial power market design scheme, the comprehensive evaluation method based on the three levels of rationality-feasibility-efficiency can be adopted, on the basis of satisfying the rationality principle and the feasibility principle, Select the most efficient power market design scheme as the recommended implementation scheme; For the comprehensive evaluation of mature power market, this paper adopts the comprehensive evaluation method based on fuzzy evaluation and analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The fuzzy evaluation quantifies the qualitative evaluation index and the quantitative evaluation index, and the AHP determines the weight value of each index. Then the power market is evaluated in five dimensions: fairness, efficiency, risk aversion, maneuverability and problem-orientation. Finally, this paper compares and analyzes the new and old trading and settlement rules in Guangdong power market, and simulates the application curve of the difference between supply and demand based on the actual centralized bidding results of Guangdong power market, and then obtains the trading results under the new and old rules. By comparing the trading results, this paper analyzes the characteristics of the new and old trading rules, and through the trading results, we can see that the power of the supplier market in Guangdong electricity market is weak.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.61

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