极值风速地域性演化及对风力发电机组安全性的影响
发布时间：2019-06-17 14:25
【摘要】：风力发电机组根据历史气象观测数据计算确定的多年一遇风速进行设计与选型,若气候模式在其寿命期间发生改变,风速极值分布可能出现明显变化,将对风力机的安全性造成突出影响。为此,选用我国风电开发热点区域5处气象站点近40 a气象观测数据,将其分为前后2段(1973—1992和1993—2012),利用基于广义Pareto分布的跨阈法分别计算了多年一遇极值风速。分析了长时间尺度下气候变化所致多年一遇极值风速的地域性变化规律及其对风力发电机组安全性的影响。通过前后时段和不同地域多年一遇极值风速的对比,分析发现所调研内蒙和山东站点50 a一遇和1 a一遇最大风速均呈下降趋势,长时间尺度上极值风速的变化对风力机安全性有正面影响,而华中地区站点基本持平,长时间尺度上极值风速的变化对风力机安全性无明显影响。
[Abstract]:The wind turbine generator set is designed and selected according to the historical meteorological observation data. If the climate model changes during its service life, the wind speed extreme value distribution may change significantly, which will have a prominent effect on the safety of the wind turbine. For this reason, the meteorological observation data of the meteorological station at 5 meteorological station in the hot spot of wind power development in China is selected to be divided into two sections (1973,1992 and 1993-2012), and the extreme wind speed for many years is calculated by the cross-threshold method based on the generalized Pareto distribution, respectively. The regional variation of the annual extreme wind speed and its influence on the safety of the wind-driven generator set under the long time scale are analyzed. Through the comparison of the extreme wind speed in the front and back period and the multi-year extreme wind speed in different regions, it is found that the maximum wind speed in the first and the second once-in-one and once-in-one-year and once-in-one-year and once-in-one-year maximum wind speed in the investigated Inner Mongolia and Shandong have a downward trend, and the change of the extreme wind speed on the long time scale has a positive effect on In central China, the site is basically flat, and the change of the extreme wind speed on the long time scale has no obvious influence on the safety of the wind turbine.
【作者单位】： 长沙理工大学智能电网运行与控制湖南省重点实验室;中核核电运行管理有限公司;华中科技大学强电磁工程与新技术国家重点实验室;南瑞集团公司(北京);
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(71331001;71420107027;91547113) 湖南省科技计划(2016WK2015;2016WK2016) 湖南省教育厅科研项目(14K002)~~
【分类号】：TM315;TM614
[Abstract]:The wind turbine generator set is designed and selected according to the historical meteorological observation data. If the climate model changes during its service life, the wind speed extreme value distribution may change significantly, which will have a prominent effect on the safety of the wind turbine. For this reason, the meteorological observation data of the meteorological station at 5 meteorological station in the hot spot of wind power development in China is selected to be divided into two sections (1973,1992 and 1993-2012), and the extreme wind speed for many years is calculated by the cross-threshold method based on the generalized Pareto distribution, respectively. The regional variation of the annual extreme wind speed and its influence on the safety of the wind-driven generator set under the long time scale are analyzed. Through the comparison of the extreme wind speed in the front and back period and the multi-year extreme wind speed in different regions, it is found that the maximum wind speed in the first and the second once-in-one and once-in-one-year and once-in-one-year and once-in-one-year maximum wind speed in the investigated Inner Mongolia and Shandong have a downward trend, and the change of the extreme wind speed on the long time scale has a positive effect on In central China, the site is basically flat, and the change of the extreme wind speed on the long time scale has no obvious influence on the safety of the wind turbine.
【作者单位】： 长沙理工大学智能电网运行与控制湖南省重点实验室;中核核电运行管理有限公司;华中科技大学强电磁工程与新技术国家重点实验室;南瑞集团公司(北京);
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(71331001;71420107027;91547113) 湖南省科技计划(2016WK2015;2016WK2016) 湖南省教育厅科研项目(14K002)~~
【分类号】：TM315;TM614
【参考文献】
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