基于环境资源价值的能源电力大气耦合规划研究

发布时间：2019-06-25 14:48

【摘要】：近年来,随着经济社会的快速发展,虽然我国大气污染防治工作取得了很大的成效,但大气环境质量现状依然不容乐观,季节性或多发性“雾霾”大气污染事件频发。“十三五”期间,作为我国大气污染防治工作的主要控制对象,能源电力行业环境保护将成为行业发展的“硬约束”,原有以化石能源为主的生产消费结构已无法满足当前环境保护的工作要求,能源-电力-环境结构调整势在必行。本文基于课题组电力-大气耦合系统规划模型的研究基础,考虑电力-大气环境系统参数的不确定性和区间变化的特点,引入区间规划的方法,进一步完善现有研究成果,为决策者提供更有现实意义的决策支持。同时,针对现有研究成果未充分考虑能源系统与电力-环境系统间的互动联系,本文重构了基于大气环境资源有价理念的能源-电力-大气耦合系统,运用区间机会随机约束规划方法(ICCP)处理有效资源利用量不确定性的问题,并考量清洁能源发展水平和随机约束概率水平对规划系统的影响,通过将上述两种因素进行正交设计,最终得到9种情景下的大气环境资源供应计划、电力生产计划、电力扩容计划以及能源供应计划的优化方案。此外,为进一步提高决策质量,本文引入多属性判据决策的方法,通过对系统成本、排污收费成本、煤耗量、新能源发电量及外送电量5项属性值进行权重比例分配,对本文设置的9种情景方案进行优化排序,得出当清洁能源装机容量按照匀速水平发展,煤炭资源供应量维持95%以内的供应水平,案例省电力行业可达到最小发电成本下的最佳发电模式。为实现能源-电力-大气耦合系统规划模型的直观应用,使其具有更强的操作性,本文运用Visual Studio以及SQL等软件开发了基于大气环境资源有偿使用的电力行业规划数据库,该数据库可实现对本文开发的能源-电力-大气耦合规划模型所需基础信息的智能化查询和模型优化过程的自动化处理。软件运行结果表明,该数据库性能稳定、可靠性高且具有高效性、信息全面的特点,可有效提高管理者在电力系统规划过程中的决策效率。上述各项研究成果是对我国现有电力系统管理规划工作的有益探索和补充,有望满足新时期我国电力系统管理规划工作面临的迫切要求。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid development of the economy and society, while the prevention and control of air pollution in China has achieved great results, the quality of the atmospheric environment is still not optimistic, and the seasonal or multiple "haze" of air pollution events are frequent. During the "XIII." period, as the main control object of the prevention and control of air pollution in China, the environmental protection of the energy power industry will become the "hard constraint" of the development of the industry, and the original production consumption structure based on the fossil energy cannot meet the work requirements of the current environmental protection. Energy-power-environmental structural adjustment is imperative. Based on the research of the planning model of the power-atmosphere coupling system of the research group, this paper takes into account the uncertainty of the parameters of the electric-air environment system and the characteristics of the interval change, introduces the method of interval planning, and further improves the existing research results. Provide more meaningful decision-making support for decision makers. At the same time, aiming at the existing research results, the interaction between the energy system and the power-environment system is not fully considered, and the energy-power-atmosphere coupling system based on the value concept of the atmospheric environment is reconstructed. An interval-opportunity stochastic constraint planning method (ICCP) is used to deal with the problem of the uncertainty of the effective resource utilization, and the influence of the clean energy development level and the random constraint probability level on the planning system is considered, and the two factors are orthogonal design, Finally, we get the air environment resource supply plan, the electric power production plan, the power expansion plan and the energy supply plan optimization plan under the nine scenarios. in addition, in order to further improve the decision-making quality, a multi-attribute criterion decision-making method is introduced, The nine scenarios, which are set in this paper, are optimized and sorted, and it is concluded that when the installed capacity of the clean energy is developed at a constant speed, the supply level of the coal resources is maintained within 95%, and the power industry in the case of the case can reach the optimal power generation mode at the minimum power generation cost. In order to realize the visual application of the energy-power-atmosphere coupling system planning model, this paper makes it more operational, and the paper uses Visual Studio and SQL to develop the power industry planning database based on the paid use of the atmospheric environment resources. The database can realize the intelligent query of the basic information needed for the energy-power-atmosphere coupling planning model developed in the paper and the automatic processing of the model optimization process. The software running results show that the database has the characteristics of stable performance, high reliability and high efficiency and comprehensive information, and can effectively improve the decision efficiency of the manager in the power system planning process. The above research results are a useful exploration and supplement to the existing power system management planning in our country, and it is expected to meet the urgent demand of China's power system management planning in the new period.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X322;TM715

【参考文献】