风光互补城市供电项目后评价研究

发布时间：2018-01-09 19:40

本文关键词：风光互补城市供电项目后评价研究　出处：《华北电力大学(北京)》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着传统能源储量不断减少,全球开始面临能源告罄的局面。风光互补发电项目相较于单独的风力发电和太阳能发电具有更好的可靠性,因此得到了政府和投资人的青睐。目前国内外的风光互补发电项目逐渐增多,而专家学者的研究重点主要集中在风光互补发电的技术上。鉴于已有投产运行的风光互补发电项目,以及后评价工作能够为类似后续项目的开展提供很好的经验和教训,因此本文依托二连浩特风光互补城市供电项目,构建了风光互补城市供电项目的后评价体系。首先,本文对国内外后评价文献进行了梳理,针对国内主流的后评价指标体系,提出其存在的问题：①运营阶段的评价工作比较薄弱；②经济效益评价和影响评价有较多重复；③环境影响评价内容单薄；④可持续性评价指标概念不清晰。针对以上问题,本文采取如下的改进意见：①将后评价的指标分为三部分,即建设阶段评价,运营阶段评价和影响评价。尤其加强了运营阶段的评价内容,并设计了相应的子指标；②分离财务评价和国民经济评价指标。将财务评价归入运营阶段评价,国民经济评价归入环境评价中的经济影响评价；③在环境影响评价中增添能源分析指标；④去除可持续性指标。其次,总结了风光互补城市供电项目的特点,如工程主体多,开放的工程环境,资源的整合性和项目组合性,这些特点导致该类项目的工程复杂性。在此基础上,结合指标选取的基本原则,本文构建了一套全新的评价指标体系,共包括35个末级指标,并分析了各个指标的内涵,评价的内容。同时本文确定了指标权重的计算方法和评价方法,即层次分析法和物元-可拓法。最后,本文依据二连浩特风光互补城市供电项目,对该后评价体系进行了实证研究,利用实际数据和专家经验,通过计算得到了该项目的评价结果。从而有效地验证了本文构建的后评价体系模型的合理性。本文首次针对风光互补城市供电项目后评价进行研究,构建了指标体系,确定了权重确定的方法和评价方法。本文的研究成果将为后续风光互补发电项目后评价工作的开展提供了参考价值。
[Abstract]:As traditional energy reserves continue to decline, the world is beginning to face the situation of energy depletion. Wind complementary power generation projects have better reliability than individual wind and solar power generation. Therefore, it has been favored by the government and investors. At present, the number of wind complementary power generation projects at home and abroad is increasing gradually. The research focus of experts and scholars is mainly on the technology of wind power generation. And post-evaluation work can provide a good experience and lessons for similar follow-up projects, so this paper relies on Erlianhaote complementary urban power supply project. This paper constructs the post-evaluation system of the power supply project in the city with complementary scenery. Firstly, this paper combs the domestic and foreign post-evaluation literature, aiming at the domestic mainstream post-evaluation index system. The evaluation work of the operation stage of the problem of "1: 1" is relatively weak; (2) there are more duplicates in economic benefit evaluation and impact assessment; (3) the content of environmental impact assessment is thin; 4 the concept of sustainability evaluation index is not clear. In view of the above problems, this paper adopts the following improvement opinion: 1: 1 to divide the index of post-evaluation into three parts, namely, the evaluation of construction stage. The evaluation of operation stage and impact evaluation. Especially, the evaluation content of operation phase is strengthened, and the corresponding sub-index is designed. (2) separating the financial evaluation from the national economic evaluation. The financial evaluation is classified as the operational stage evaluation, and the national economic evaluation is classified as the economic impact assessment in the environmental evaluation; (3) adding energy analysis index to environmental impact assessment; (4) remove the sustainability index. Secondly, summarize the characteristics of the city power supply projects, such as more engineering subjects, open engineering environment, integration of resources and project combination. These characteristics lead to the complexity of the project. On this basis, combined with the basic principles of index selection, this paper constructed a new evaluation index system, including a total of 35 final indicators. And analyzed the connotation of each index, the content of evaluation. At the same time, this paper determined the index weight calculation method and evaluation method, that is, analytic hierarchy process and matter-extension method. Finally. Based on the power supply project of Erlianhaote complementary city, this paper makes an empirical study on the post-evaluation system, and makes use of the actual data and expert experience. The evaluation results of the project are obtained by calculation, which effectively verifies the rationality of the post-evaluation system model constructed in this paper. For the first time, the post-evaluation of the power supply project in the city with complementary scenery is studied in this paper. The index system is constructed, the method of weight determination and the evaluation method are determined. The research results of this paper will provide a reference value for the post-evaluation work of the follow-up wind-wind complementary power generation project.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TM61

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