基于用电大客户的电力市场分析预测方法研究

发布时间：2018-01-28 19:34

本文关键词： 电力市场分析需求预测预测方法　出处：《北京邮电大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：当前,我国电力市场在总体结构上分三个层次,即国家、区域、省(市),但省(市)级电力市场是我国电力运营基础核心层次。长期以来,由于受到各种相关因素的制约,省级电网公司营销部门对于电力市场的分析和预测往往从总体宏观角度开展,在售电方面多以各售电类别的总量展开分析和预测,而负荷方面则多以调度的统计数据进行分析和预测。随着经济社会的发展进步,市场变化越来越复杂,这种粗犷化的分析模式已逐渐不能跟上市场发展变化的脚步,成为制约电网公司营销水平提高的难题和瓶颈之一。如何更科学认识和分析电力市场,深入了解市场变化趋势,准确把握市场未来发展方向,以及如何遵循市场经济的基本规律和电力工业生产的特殊规律、进行企业生产经营和市场竞争决策的新课题,这需要我们将现代科学管理理论方法和市场经济的基本规律有机结合,建立一套更适应我国省级电网电力市场的分析和预测方法体系。本文对湖北省整个售电市场进行了全面的分析和解读。从宏观-全社会、中观---行业(用户群)、微观---用电大客户这三个层次的进行分析研究,并就他们的未来的发展趋势进行了预测。基于大量的客户用电数据,分析挖掘不同类型用电大客户群体的划分、发展变化特性、主要影响因素以及结合影响因素进行分类预测,研究电力市场的构成和特点,对电力市场进行进一步细化。在此基础上,分别采用统计分析法、比较分析法、结构分析法、集中度分析法、阶梯式经济活动分析法、指数平滑、相关预测等多种分析预测方法,根据湖北省电力市场发展的特点,提出了适用于该地区的基于用电大客户行业细分的分析预测方法,结合已有的基本预测方法进行综合预测,对2014年的全社会用电量、售电、最大负荷等指标进行预测,并得出了较为合理的预测结果,可作为湖北省电力发展科学决策的依据。
[Abstract]:At present, the electric power market of our country is divided into three levels in the overall structure, namely, the country, the region, the province (city) level electricity market, but the province (city) level electricity market is our country electricity operation foundation core level for a long time. Due to the constraints of various related factors, the analysis and prediction of the power market by the marketing department of provincial power grid companies are often carried out from the overall macro perspective. With the development of economy and society, the market changes become more and more complicated. This rough analysis model has been unable to keep up with the pace of market development and change, and has become one of the difficult problems and bottlenecks restricting the improvement of the marketing level of power grid companies. How to understand and analyze the electricity market more scientifically. Deeply understand the market change trend, accurately grasp the future development direction of the market, and how to follow the basic laws of the market economy and the special law of electric power industry production. It is necessary for us to combine the modern scientific management theory and the basic law of market economy with the new task of enterprise production and management and market competition decision. Set up a set of analysis and forecast method system which is more suitable for the power market of provincial power grid in our country. This article has carried on the comprehensive analysis and the interpretation to the entire electricity sale market in Hubei Province. From the macroscopic-the whole society, the meso---industry (user group, micro-- large customer) these three levels carries on the analysis and the research to carry on the analysis and the research from the macroscopic-whole society, the meso---industry. Based on a large number of customer data, this paper analyzes and excavates the classification and development characteristics of different types of large customers. The main influencing factors and combined with factors are classified forecast, the composition and characteristics of the electricity market are studied, and the electricity market is further refined. On this basis, statistical analysis method and comparative analysis method are used respectively. Structural analysis, concentration analysis, stepwise economic activity analysis, exponential smoothing, correlation prediction and other analysis and prediction methods, according to the characteristics of Hubei electricity market development. This paper puts forward an analytical and forecasting method based on the industry segmentation of large customers in this area. Combined with the existing basic forecasting methods, this paper makes a comprehensive prediction on the electricity consumption and electricity sales of the whole society in 2014. The maximum load and other indexes are forecasted, and the reasonable results are obtained, which can be used as the basis for scientific decision making on the development of electric power in Hubei province.
【学位授予单位】：北京邮电大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.61;F274

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