考虑学习曲线的电源结构优化和减排潜力评价

发布时间：2018-02-16 11:50

本文关键词： 电源结构学习曲线 CO_2减排碳税　出处：《天津大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着经济的增长,能源在社会发展中显得愈发重要。世界经济持续发展,在能源需求的快速增长下,不可避免的伴随着一些其他的难题,比如能源供给短缺。化石能源的过度消耗导致更多的温室气体排放,已经造成气候与环境产生了巨大改变,对人们生存、国民经济的低碳发展造成了重大威胁,减少以CO_2为主的温室气体排放从而缓解气候变暖已成为世界各国的共同追求。电力作为中国最重要的二次能源,是造成CO_2大量排放的主要原因。2012年,火力发电装机容量占总容量的71.60%,水力、核能和新能源发电分别占比21.77%、1.12%和5.51%。可以看出,中国现有电力系统能源结构不但对电力的可持续性发展有害,还会导致恶劣的环境损害问题。因此,开发并促进新能源的发展、维护我国能源安全是非常重要的。本文在中国电源结构的基础上,搜集相关发电成本和排放数据,构建了中国电力系统能源模型和可再生能源发电成本学习曲线模型。中国电力系统能源模型在满足能源需求以及碳排放约束的基础上,以总发电成本最小化来优化能源结构。可再生能源学习曲线模型旨在通过学习曲线模拟新能源发电成本随着政策变化和技术进步的变化情况。文章设定多个情景,探索中国未来电源结构和减排潜力。结果显示,在基准情景下,从2010年至2040年,燃煤发电始终是我国未来主要发电形式,水力发电次之。CO_2减排目标的制定和碳税政策的实施都将促使我国电源结构逐渐从碳含量高的化石燃料发电向碳含量低的化石燃料发电和新能源发电转变。减排目标设定情景里,IGCC技术、带碳捕捉的IGCC技术、SC技术和USC技术加快了其扩散速度,但是在碳税政策里,太阳能和风能发电技术发展的更好。在页岩气、清洁发电技术的学习曲线应用情景里,这两种技术分别都得到了更好的发展。毫无意外,所有的政策实施均会导致总成本的增加。在前期,CO_2减排目标更加有效,但在后期,随着碳税政策更加成熟,碳税政策会更加有效。因此政府可以根据发展需求选择不同的政策,从而促进新能源和新技术的发展,减少CO_2的排放。
[Abstract]:As the economy grows, energy becomes more and more important in social development. The sustained development of the world economy, with the rapid growth of energy demand, inevitably accompanies some other difficult problems. For example, the shortage of energy supply. The excessive consumption of fossil energy has led to more greenhouse gas emissions, which has caused tremendous changes in climate and environment, and posed a major threat to the survival of people and the low-carbon development of the national economy. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions based on CO_2 to mitigate global warming has become the common pursuit of all countries in the world. As the most important secondary energy in China, electricity is the main reason for the large amount of CO_2 emissions. In 2012, The installed capacity of thermal power generation accounts for 71.60% of the total capacity. The proportion of water power, nuclear energy and new energy power generation is 21.771.12% and 5.51% respectively. It can be seen that the energy structure of China's existing power system is not only harmful to the sustainable development of electricity, Therefore, it is very important to develop and promote the development of new energy and maintain the energy security of our country. The energy model of Chinese power system and the learning curve model of renewable energy generation cost are constructed. The energy model of China power system is based on meeting the energy demand and carbon emission constraints. The learning curve model of renewable energy aims to simulate the change of new energy generation cost with the change of policy and technology. Explore the future power supply structure and emission reduction potential of China. The results show that from 2010 to 2040, coal-fired power generation has always been the main form of power generation in China from 2010 to 2040. The formulation of emission reduction target and the implementation of carbon tax policy will promote the transformation of power supply structure from fossil fuel power generation with high carbon content to fossil fuel power generation with low carbon content and new energy generation. IGCC technology in the setting scenario, IGCC technology with carbon capture, SC technology and USC technology accelerate their diffusion rate, but solar and wind power generation technologies develop better in carbon tax policy. In shale gas, clean power generation technology learning curve application scenario, The two technologies are both better developed. No surprise, all policies will lead to higher total costs. In the early stages, the COSP 2 emission reduction target will be more effective, but later, as the carbon tax policy becomes more mature, The carbon tax policy will be more effective. Therefore, the government can choose different policies according to the development needs, thus promoting the development of new energy and technology and reducing CO_2 emissions.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：X322;F426.61

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