配电网故障停电风险评估指标体系及评估方法研究

发布时间：2018-02-24 11:48

本文关键词： 配电网故障停电风险风险指标体系故障率分块技术　出处：《华北电力大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近几年来国内外的大面积停电事件发生较为频繁，最接近的有2012年7月的印度大停电事件，以及2013年6月5日我国上海市的故障停电事件和2008年南方冰灾导致的大面积停电事件，这些停电事件的共同点就是都给地方电力系统尤其是配电网系统带来较大的破坏。据统计80%的电网故障都是由配电网故障引起的，尤其是城市配电网的故障停电会给城市带来不可估量的经济和社会损失，因此，保障配电网系统的安全、可靠、经济运行是电力企业义不容辞的责任，本文研究城市配电网故障停电风险也具有重大的现实意义。第一部分，从我国配电网风险研究与西方发达国家的差距及国内外大停电事件的经验教训方面阐述配电网风险评估的背景；阐述了配电网故障停电风险的研究意义。通过查阅文献了解风险评估理论在配电网系统的研究现状，对风险、风险评估的定义，配电网故障停电风险的定义和内容进行介绍。同时还对配电网的风险评估和可靠性评估的关系进行说明。第二部分，对配电网故障停电风险的定义和影响因素进行分析。根据导致故障停电的内部原因，从故障停电概率和故障停电损失两方面建立了配电网故障停电风险评估指标体系。最后根据所建立的故障停电风险评估指标体系以及风险的定义建立了配电网故障停电风险评估模型。第三部分，建立故障停电概率估算模型，首先建立了基于双态天气条件下的元件故障率模型，其次，，提出基于馈线分区思想的配电网故障停电概率估算方法，运用元件故障率求出各个分块的故障率，然后以分块故障率为基础计算各个负荷点的故障停电概率。建立故障停电损失估算模型，提出了基于分块技术的停电损失估算模型，配电网故障停电损失包括用户故障停电损失和供电企业故障停电损失，将电费收入损失和设备检修费用汇总分摊到各个负荷点上，从而计算出整个配电网的故障停电损失。第四部分，对配电网故障停电风险进行评估。以IEEE-RBTS母线2配电系统中馈线F1、F2组成的子系统为研究对象进行故障停电风险评估算例分析，根据各个负荷点故障停电概率和故障停电损失的高低进行停电风险分类分析。
[Abstract]:In recent years, large-scale power outages have occurred more frequently both at home and abroad, the closest being the Indian blackout in July 2012. As well as the power outages in Shanghai on June 5th 2013 and large-scale blackouts caused by ice disasters in southern China on 2008, The common denominator of these blackouts is that they all cause greater damage to the local power system, especially the distribution network system. According to statistics, 80% of the power grid failures are caused by distribution network failures. In particular, the failure of urban distribution network will bring incalculable economic and social losses to the city. Therefore, it is the unshirkable responsibility of electric power enterprises to ensure the safety, reliability and economic operation of distribution network system. It is also of great practical significance to study the risk of power failure in urban distribution network. The first part expounds the background of distribution network risk assessment from the gap between China's distribution network risk research and western developed countries and the experience and lessons of power outages at home and abroad. This paper expounds the significance of research on the risk of distribution network fault outage, through consulting the literature to understand the research status of risk assessment theory in distribution network system, the definition of risk and risk assessment, The definition and content of distribution network failure risk are introduced, and the relationship between distribution network risk assessment and reliability assessment is also explained. In the second part, the definition and influence factors of power failure risk in distribution network are analyzed. The evaluation index system of distribution network fault blackout risk is established from two aspects of fault blackout probability and failure loss. Finally, according to the established risk evaluation index system and the definition of risk, the distribution network fault risk evaluation index system is established. Risk assessment model of barrier power failure. In the third part, the probability estimation model of fault outage is established. Firstly, the failure rate model of components based on the condition of double state weather is established. Secondly, the method of estimating the probability of power failure in distribution network based on the idea of feeder partition is proposed. The failure rate of each block is calculated by using the failure rate of components, and then the probability of failure at each load point is calculated based on the failure rate of each block. A model for estimating the loss of power failure is established, and a model for estimating the loss of power failure based on block technology is proposed. The power failure loss of distribution network includes customer failure loss and power supply enterprise fault failure loss. The loss of electricity revenue and equipment maintenance cost are divided into each load point to calculate the power failure loss of the whole distribution network. In the 4th part, the risk of power failure in distribution network is evaluated. The subsystem of feeder F _ 1 / F _ 2 in IEEE-RBTS busbar 2 distribution system is taken as the research object to evaluate the risk of fault outage. The blackout risk is classified and analyzed according to the probability of failure and the loss of failure at each load point.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TM73

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