计及相关性的间歇式能源置信容量评估

发布时间：2018-03-01 07:16

本文关键词： 间歇式能源相关性 Copula-ARMA 蒙特卡洛模拟置信容量　出处：《东南大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,随着全球变暖和化石燃料的衰竭,风、光等间歇式可再生能源在替代传统能源方面起到了重要作用。然而,间歇式能源具有易变、不稳定的特性,它们的大量接入会给电力系统的可靠性带来不同于常规机组的影响,这就需要对间歇式能源可带来的容量效益即置信容量进行评估。此外,随着间歇式能源渗透率逐渐增高,如果仅仅考虑单个间歇式能源场站的置信容量实际意义不大,而应综合考虑各间歇式能源电源出力的相关性,研究广域区间内多个间歇式能源的协调运作集中并入电网的综合置信容量。针对目前电网中间歇式能源大规模投入的现状,本文提出一种可以计及间歇式能源相关性的置信容量评估方法。提出计及相关性的多风电场联合出力模型。该模型综合考虑风速、尾流效应、风电装换等因素。在对风速进行建模时,首先利用Copula多元分布模型,获取多个风速序列间的空间相关特性,进而利用ARMA模型构建单一风速序列的时间相依特性,最后,撷取ARMA模型的时序特性和Copula分布模型的空间相依特性,构建Copula-ARMA多元时序风速模型。提出计及相关性的风电场光伏电站联合出力模型。模型综合考虑了风速、光辐射强度、温度等客观环境因素,同时计及两种间歇式能源发电技术的能量转换关系。考虑到光伏电站的昼夜特性,分别建立昼间和夜间的风电场光伏电站联合出力模型。昼间模型采用与多元风速类似的Copula-ARMA多元时序风速-光辐射强度序列模型,夜间考虑到光伏电站的出力近似为零,只对风速序列采用ARMA模型。提出间歇式能源可靠性及置信容量评估模型。该模型首先采用时序Monte Carlo模拟法评估含间歇式能源的系统可靠性,进而利用弦截法评估间歇式能源的置信容量,最后通过IEEE-RBTS测试系统算例,分析多种不确定因素对间歇式能源置信容量的影响。结果表明：提出的计及相关性的间歇式能源出力模型可直接用于间歇式能源综合置信容量评估,间歇式能源的出力模型、出力间的相关性以及容量配置方式等对间歇式能源的综合置信容量有不可忽略的影响。评估结果可为含大规模间歇式能源的联合发电系统的规划与发展提供直接可靠的依据。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with global warming and fossil fuel depletion, intermittent renewable energy sources, such as wind and light, have played an important role in replacing conventional energy sources. Their large number of connections will have a different impact on the reliability of power systems than conventional units, which requires an assessment of the capacity benefits that intermittent energy can bring, that is, confidence capacity. Moreover, as intermittent energy permeability increases, If it is of little practical significance to consider only the confidence capacity of a single intermittent energy station, the correlation of the output of each intermittent energy source should be considered synthetically. This paper studies the integrated confidence capacity of the coordinated operation of multiple intermittent energy sources in the wide area region. In view of the current situation of large-scale investment of intermittent energy sources in the power grid, In this paper, a confidence capacity evaluation method which can take into account the intermission energy correlation is proposed. A multi-wind farm combined force model considering the correlation is proposed. The wind speed and wake effect are taken into account in the model. When modeling wind speed, we first use the Copula multivariate distribution model to obtain the spatial correlation characteristics of multiple wind speed series, and then use ARMA model to construct the time-dependent characteristics of a single wind speed series. Based on the temporal characteristics of ARMA model and spatial dependence of Copula distribution model, the multivariate time-series wind speed model of Copula-ARMA is constructed. A wind farm photovoltaic power generation model considering the correlation is proposed. The wind speed and light radiation intensity are taken into account in the model. Objective environmental factors such as temperature, taking into account the energy conversion relationship between the two intermittent energy generation technologies, and considering the circadian characteristics of photovoltaic power plants, The diurnal and nocturnal wind farm photovoltaic power generation models are established respectively. The diurnal model adopts the Copula-ARMA multivariate time-series wind speed series model similar to the multivariate wind speed, and considers that the output force of the photovoltaic power station is approximately zero at night. The ARMA model is used only for wind speed series, and an intermittent energy reliability and confidence capacity evaluation model is proposed. Firstly, the time-series Monte Carlo simulation method is used to evaluate the reliability of the system with intermittent energy. Then the confidence capacity of intermittent energy is evaluated by using the chord truncation method. Finally, the IEEE-RBTS test system is used to calculate the confidence capacity. The influence of many uncertain factors on the confidence capacity of intermittent energy is analyzed. The results show that the proposed model can be directly used in the evaluation of the comprehensive confidence capacity of intermittent energy and the output model of intermittent energy. The correlation between the output forces and the capacity allocation mode can not be ignored on the comprehensive confidence capacity of intermittent energy. The evaluation results can provide a direct and reliable basis for the planning and development of the combined power generation system with large-scale intermittent energy.
【学位授予单位】：东南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TM61

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