可再生能源发电的影响因素及政策效果评价

发布时间：2018-03-07 21:48

本文选题：可再生能源　切入点：影响因素　出处：《华北电力大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着环境问题日趋严重,未来可再生能源发电在中国电力结构中的地位越来越重要。《可再生能源发展“十二五”规划》设立了可再生能源发电利用的宏伟目标,但要实现这一具有挑战性的目标,需要从各个方面完善可再生能源发电体系。目前,为促进可再生能源发电利用,中国已出台了一系列相关政策。评价可再生能源发电政策的效果并分析现有可再生能源发电的机制障碍将有利于其进一步的发展,为未来的政策制定提供实践依据。本文首先分析了中国可再生能源发电现状和可再生能源发电的影响因素,其中影响因素分为非政策影响因素和政策影响因素。研究发现,政策可以通过调控手段在一定程度上消除可再生能源发电在自然、经济、需求、技术和社会这些非政策影响因素中的一些障碍。鉴于政策的重要作用,本文建立了评价可再生能源发电政策效果的省级面板数据模型,并考虑了资源情况对政策效果的影响,通过引入政策变量与资源变量的交叉项,反映政策在不同资源区的效果差异情况。基于构建的计量模型,本文实证分析了可再生能源发电的价格管制政策和非价格管制政策对风电发展的影响。结果表明,价格管制政策和非价格管制政策从总体上都对风电发展具有积极作用,且价格管制政策的实施效果更好。另外,考虑资源对政策效果影响差异的实证分析结果表明,政策在不同资源区的实施效果存在差异,即价格管制政策的实施效果在资源非丰富区更明显,而非价格管制政策的实施效果则相反：资源区中不同政策的效果也存在差异,即丰富区的非价格管制政策影响效果更大,而非丰富区的结果则相反。因此,因地制宜地制定灵活、细化的可再生能源发电政策是非常必要的。最后,为进一步促进可再生能源发电,本文指出了目前可再生能源发电在补贴和税收、上网电价、电力交易、对利益主体的激励和总体规划五个方面中的机制障碍,并提出了相应的对策建议。
[Abstract]:With the increasingly serious environmental problems, the status of renewable energy generation in China's power structure is becoming more and more important in the future. The 12th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Renewable Energy has set up a grand goal of renewable energy generation and utilization. However, in order to achieve this challenging goal, the renewable energy generation system needs to be improved in all its aspects. China has issued a series of related policies. Evaluating the effect of renewable energy power generation policy and analyzing the existing mechanism obstacles of renewable energy power generation will be conducive to its further development and provide practical basis for future policy making. This paper first analyzes the current situation of renewable energy generation in China and the influencing factors of renewable energy generation, among which the factors are divided into non-policy factors and policy factors. Policies can remove, to some extent, the barriers to renewable energy generation in non-policy factors, such as nature, economy, demand, technology and society, through regulatory measures... in view of the important role of policy, In this paper, a provincial panel data model for evaluating the effect of renewable energy generation policy is established, and the influence of resource situation on policy effect is considered. By introducing the cross term of policy variable and resource variable, Based on the measurement model, this paper empirically analyzes the influence of price regulation policy and non-price regulation policy of renewable energy generation on wind power development. Both the price control policy and the non-price regulation policy have positive effect on wind power development, and the price control policy has better effect. There are differences in the effect of policy implementation in different resource regions, that is, the effect of price control policy is more obvious in non-rich resource areas, but the effect of non-price control policy is opposite: the effect of different policies in resource area is also different. That is, non-price control policies in rich areas have more effect than those in non-rich areas. Therefore, it is necessary to make flexible and detailed renewable energy generation policies according to local conditions. Finally, In order to further promote renewable energy generation, this paper points out the mechanism obstacles of renewable energy generation in the following five aspects: subsidies and taxes, electricity price, electricity transaction, incentive to stakeholders and overall planning. The corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.61

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