系统动力学在社会经济与用电趋势的关联分析研究

发布时间：2018-03-30 06:36

本文选题：系统动力学　切入点：社会经济指标　出处：《北京交通大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：电力负荷是电力系统中能量的消耗者,是电力系统的服务对象,正确地分析电力负荷的变化对电力系统的设计、分析与控制都具有重要意义。而电力系统负荷的中长期变化是受到社会经济、政策等多方面不确定因素综合影响的一个动态过程,选择合适的方法对电力系统负荷进行相对准确的预测对电力系统规划、电力产业发展乃至地区经济进步都具有重要意义。首先,在过去常用的负荷预测方法中,通常是将对全社会用电需求情况以及各个产业的用电需求情况单独分开进行分析,而忽略了它们之间的联系。所以,本文提出使用系统动力学的方法来进行社会经济与用电趋势的关联分析。使用系统动力学方法来分析社会经济与用电趋势间的关联关系,可以更好地反映各个经济因素与全社会及各产业用电量间“牵一发而动全身”的动态关联关系,当模型中某个变量发生变化时,模型可以及时作出反应,使得其他变量一起随之进行相应的变化,这样可以更好地实现各个产业用电变化间的均衡。其次,本文以系统动力学为理论基础,并且在充分考虑全社会以及各个产业经济变量与其用电需求变化间相互关系的基础上,使用系统动力学软件——Vensim PLE对全社会及各个产业均建立经济变量与用电需求变化间的关联模型,模型在考虑每个产业用电变化特点的同时也体现出了各个产业间紧密的联系。再次,本文以我国西部某欠发达省份A省作为研究对象,在充分了解该省社会经济及用电需求历史发展规律及现状的前提下,使用系统动力学方法对其建立了社会经济与用电趋势的关联分析模型,并使用回归算法对模型中参数进行估计,从而得出该省2014年～2020年社会经济及用电需求的预测值,并由预测数据来对其未来发展趋势作出分析。最后,本文将预测结果与该省发展现状及未来发展规划进行对比分析,得出该省在2020年达到规划要求是可能的以及所建立模型预测准确的结论,这说明系统动力学应用于社会经济与用电趋势关联分析的分析结果准确并且具有较好系统均衡性。
[Abstract]:Power load is the energy consumer in the power system and the service object of the power system. The design of the power system is correctly analyzed by the change of the power load. Analysis and control are of great significance. The medium and long term change of power system load is a dynamic process which is influenced by many uncertain factors, such as social economy, policy and so on. It is very important for power system planning, electric power industry development and even regional economic progress to select appropriate methods to forecast the load of power system. First of all, in the past commonly used load forecasting methods, we usually analyze the demand situation of the whole society separately and the demand situation of each industry separately, ignoring the connection between them. In this paper, the method of system dynamics is proposed to analyze the relationship between social economy and power trend, and the system dynamics method is used to analyze the relationship between social economy and power trend. It can better reflect the dynamic relation between each economic factor and the electricity consumption of the whole society and industry. When a variable in the model changes, the model can react in time. So that the other variables together with the corresponding changes, so as to achieve a better balance between the changes in electricity consumption in various industries. Secondly, based on the theory of system dynamics, and on the basis of fully considering the relationship between the economic variables of the whole society and various industries and their demand for electricity, The system dynamics software Vensim PLE is used to establish the correlation model between the economic variables and the change of electricity demand for the whole society and every industry. The model considers the characteristics of each industry and reflects the close relation between each industry. Thirdly, this paper takes A province, an underdeveloped province in the west of China, as the research object, on the premise of fully understanding the historical development law and current situation of the province's social economy and electricity demand. The correlation analysis model between social economy and power consumption trend is established by using the system dynamics method, and the parameters in the model are estimated by using regression algorithm, so as to obtain the forecast value of the province's social economy and electricity demand from 2014 to 2020. And from the forecast data to its future development trend to make the analysis. Finally, this paper compares the prediction results with the current situation and future development plan of the province, and draws the conclusion that it is possible for the province to meet the planning requirements in 2020 and the model is accurate. This indicates that the system dynamics is applied to the analysis of the relationship between social economy and power consumption trend and the results are accurate and have good system equilibrium.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：N941.3;F426.61

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