季风相关性及其对风电预测影响的研究

发布时间：2018-04-04 08:45

本文选题：季风　切入点：小波去噪　出处：《天津大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：季风是亚洲和非洲等地特有的大范围盛行的、风向有明显季节变化的风系。欧洲、美洲等地没有典型的季风现象。我国约2/3的国土面积处在季风区,且主要能源消费区都处在季风区。季风和地形使得我国季风区的降水、气温、空气密度等呈现大范围的一致性。因此我国主要能源消费区的电力需求和季风特性有密切的关系。季风还引起季风区风电出力的大范围一致波动。我国坚强智能电网建设必须考虑季风的影响。因此,充分地研究季风特性对于我国风能资源的评估和智能电网的建设都十分必要。为了较好的分析季风的特性,本文首先使用了去噪效果更好的平方根变换的方法来优化小波去噪的结果,这样能有效地滤除噪声。另外通过相关系数和置信区间、散点图、交叉小波、小波相干谱等检验相关性的有效方法展示了同一地区不同高度、不同地区同一高度和不同地区不同高度的风速之间存在的相关特性,这有利于风速的预测和风速特性的研究。本文的具体研究内容如下:(1)探究了一种低阶非线性变换——平方根变换对小波去噪的效果的提升。由于小波去噪的效果并不是如此令人满意,通过平方根变换的方法,使得去噪的效果更加优秀,这有利于后期的风速特性分析。该研究属于“机理+辨识”预测策略中的预测准确率上限和可预测性研究。(2)通过相关系数和置信区间、散点图、交叉小波、小波相干谱等方法探讨同一地区不同高度、不同地区同一高度和不同地区不同高度的风速序列之间的相关性,引入风切变指数相关概念,为风速预测打下基础。(3)探讨了季风气候的规律与我国风力发电以及电力负荷的关系。希望通过较好地利用季风特性,缓解用电高峰期电力负荷过高的问题,加速智能电网的建设。
[Abstract]:The monsoon is a wide range of unique Asia and Africa and other places in the wind, the wind has obvious seasonal variation. In Europe, America and other places without the typical monsoon phenomenon. About 2/3 of our country land area in the monsoon region, and the main energy consumption areas are in the monsoon. The monsoon and terrain makes China monsoon region precipitation, air temperature, air density is consistent with wide range. So there is a close relationship between power demand and the main energy consumption characteristics of monsoon area in China. The monsoon also caused a wide range of monsoon wind power output fluctuation in China. With the construction of strong smart grid must consider the influence of monsoon. Therefore, the full research the construction of the monsoon characteristics for China's wind energy resource assessment and smart grid is necessary. In order to analyze the characteristics of good monsoon, square root transformation method firstly use the better denoising effect to optimize the small Wave denoising results, which can effectively eliminate the noise. In addition by the correlation coefficient and the confidence interval, scatter diagram, cross wavelet, wavelet spectrum and other effective methods of coherent correlation test shows the same area in different height, the correlation characteristics between different parts of the same height and different areas of high wind speed. This is the characteristic of wind speed prediction and for research. The main research contents of this paper are as follows: (1) to explore a low order nonlinear transform of the square root of wavelet transform denoising improved. Because wavelet denoising effect is not so satisfactory, through the method of square root transformation, to make the noise effect is more outstanding, which is conducive to the latter part of the analysis of characteristics of the wind. This is the "mechanism + identification" prediction strategy in accuracy and predictability limit research. (2) by the correlation coefficient and confidence Interval, scatter diagram, cross wavelet, wavelet coherence spectrum and other methods of the same area in different height, the correlation between wind speed and the same height in different regions of different height sequences in different regions, the introduction of wind shear index concept, lay the foundation for the prediction of wind speed. (3) discussed the law and the monsoon climate China wind power and power load. Through better use of monsoon characteristics, alleviate the issue of electricity peak power load is too high, accelerate the construction of smart grid.

【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TM614

【参考文献】