我国省域电力消费特征及影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-04-21 23:17

本文选题：电力消费 + 省域差异　；参考：《天津大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：电力作为世界上应用最为广泛的二次能源,随着信息时代的发展,受到越来越广泛的关注。我国31个省域的电力消费因为省域资源禀赋、经济发展水平、产业结构等方面的不同存在巨大差异。明确各省域电力消费与经济发展的关系、电力消费的影响因素,对于实现省域内部能源结构优化,保障区域能源与用电安全具有重要意义。本文通过Tapio脱钩模型,分析了各省域经济发展与电力消费的相关关系。然后基于LMDI模型对除西藏和宁夏之外的29省域及其三大产业的终端电力消费变化量进行分解,并结合我国及各省域电力、能源和经济政策,分析各省域能源结构、能源强度、产业结构、经济发展和人口规模五个因素对省域电力消费的影响。本文得到以下主要结论:第一,各省域经济发展是促进电力消费增长的首要因素。大部分省域发展状况在近几年得到改善;内蒙古、新疆等个别地区电力消费与经济发展仍然保持扩张负脱钩的状态,经济发展以大量的电力消费为代价。第二,能源结构调整导致东部、中部和西部地区电力消费增长。能源结构效应在除福建、山东、贵州陕西和辽宁之外的24省促进电力消费的增长,尤其是北京的能源结构效应占总效应的96.88%,说明我国各省域能源结构逐渐向电力倾斜。第三,能源强度效应是抑制省域电力消费增长的首要因素,各省域第二产业能源强度的降低是抑制省域电力消费增长的主力。总体上,东部和东北部地区电力消费效率高于中西部地区,北京、黑龙江、重庆和上海能源效率最高。第四,除北京、上海外,各省域产业结构调整均促进电力消费增长。各省域第二产业依然是电力消费的主体,发展第三产业利于减少电力消费。最后根据分析结果和结论,提出了以下建议:第一,继续推动省域和产业的节能减排,发展绿色经济;第二,加大力度促进省域产业结构调整,优化第二产业,发展第三产业;第三,加强电网建设,做好电力生产和终端消费之间的渠道维护,保障区域用电安全;第四,优化发电结构,提高火力发电技术,发展光电、水电、核电等清洁发电方式;第五,煤电联动,市场定价,通过适当的电价管理引导产业结构。
[Abstract]:As the most widely used secondary energy in the world, with the development of the information age, electric power has received more and more attention. There are great differences in power consumption in 31 provinces because of the resource endowment, the level of economic development and the industrial structure. It is of great significance to make clear the relationship between electric power consumption and economic development and the influence factors of electric power consumption in order to optimize the energy structure and ensure the regional energy and power security. Based on the Tapio decoupling model, this paper analyzes the correlation between the economic development of each province and electricity consumption. Then, based on the LMDI model, the terminal power consumption of 29 provinces and their three major industries except Tibet and Ningxia are decomposed, and the energy structure and energy intensity of each province are analyzed by combining the power, energy and economic policies of China and other provinces. The influence of industrial structure, economic development and population scale on provincial electric power consumption. The main conclusions are as follows: first, the economic development of the provinces is the primary factor to promote the growth of electricity consumption. The development of most provinces has been improved in recent years, and the electricity consumption and economic development of some regions such as Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang are still in a state of negative decoupling from expansion, and economic development is at the expense of a large amount of electricity consumption. Second, the adjustment of energy structure leads to the growth of electricity consumption in the east, central and western regions. The energy structure effect in 24 provinces except Fujian, Shandong, Guizhou and Liaoning promotes the increase of electric power consumption, especially the energy structure effect in Beijing accounts for 96.88% of the total effect, which indicates that the energy structure of each province in China is gradually tilting towards the electric power. Third, the energy intensity effect is the primary factor to restrain the growth of power consumption in the province, and the decrease of the energy intensity of the secondary industry in the province is the main factor to restrain the growth of the power consumption in the province. In general, the power consumption efficiency in the eastern and northeast regions is higher than that in the central and western regions, with the highest energy efficiency in Beijing, Heilongjiang, Chongqing and Shanghai. Fourth, except Beijing and Shanghai, the adjustment of industrial structure in all provinces promotes the growth of electricity consumption. The secondary industry in each province is still the main body of electricity consumption, and the development of tertiary industry is conducive to reducing electricity consumption. Finally, according to the analysis results and conclusions, the following suggestions are put forward: first, continue to promote energy conservation and emission reduction in the province and industry, and develop green economy; second, strengthen efforts to promote the adjustment of the industrial structure in the province, optimize the secondary industry, and develop the tertiary industry; Third, strengthen the construction of power grid, do a good job in the maintenance of the channel between power production and terminal consumption, and ensure the safety of regional electricity; fourth, optimize the structure of power generation, improve the technology of thermal power generation, and develop clean modes of power generation, such as photoelectricity, hydropower, nuclear power, etc. Fifth, coal and electricity linkage, market pricing, through appropriate electricity price management to guide the industrial structure.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.61

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