考虑天气因素的含风电场电力系统的概率潮流分析

发布时间：2018-04-22 02:22

本文选题：概率潮流 + 半不变量　；参考：《电网技术》2014年12期

【摘要】：概率潮流是分析电力系统不确定性的重要工具。为了有效研究不同天气状况下含风电场电力系统的潮流变化情况,引入三状态天气模型模拟天气状况对架空输电线和风力机强迫停运的影响,并推导出计及风力机出力与风速非线性关系和风力机故障的风电场出力概率模型,以更准确地描述风速波动较大时风电场输出功率的概率特性。采用基于半不变量的概率潮流法求解问题,通过Gram-Charlier级数和Von Mises法分别得到待求状态变量的连续部分和离散部分。对IEEE RTS 24节点系统的测试表明:计及风力机出力与风速非线性关系和风力机故障的风电场出力模型是必要且合理的,天气因素对含风电场电力系统的潮流概率分布有重要影响。
[Abstract]:Probabilistic power flow is an important tool to analyze the uncertainty of power system. In order to effectively study the power flow changes in wind farm power systems under different weather conditions, a three-state weather model is introduced to simulate the effects of weather conditions on forced outages of overhead transmission lines and wind turbines. The probability model of wind farm output considering the nonlinear relationship between wind turbine output force and wind speed and wind turbine fault is derived to describe more accurately the probabilistic characteristics of wind farm output power when wind speed fluctuates greatly. The semi-invariant probabilistic power flow method is used to solve the problem. The continuous and discrete parts of the state variables are obtained by Gram-Charlier series and Von Mises method, respectively. The test of IEEE RTS 24-bus system shows that it is necessary and reasonable to take into account the nonlinear relationship between wind turbine output and wind speed and wind turbine fault, and the weather factors have an important influence on the distribution of power flow probability in wind farm power system.
【作者单位】：浙江大学电气工程学院;国网上海市电力公司市南供电公司;
【基金】：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(973项目)(2013CB228206) 国家自然科学基金项目(51177143) 浙江省自然科学基金项目(LZ12E07002)~~
【分类号】：TM614

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