基于状态评价及风险评估的变电设备状态检修方法研究

发布时间：2018-04-24 05:09

本文选题：健康指数 + 故障概率　；参考：《华北电力大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：研究基于设备安全性与经济性的状态评价模型,并依据风险评估模型计算单台设备风险值,为开展变电设备状态检修提供科学依据,为电网运行提供辅助决策信息。针对变电设备因制造工艺、科技水平、运行损耗及超期服役等影响因素而产生的安全隐患,制定状态检修策略；其中的状态评价模型、风险评估模型综合考虑安全、可靠性、环境、成本等要素可规避此类安全隐患,提高供电可靠性与运维经济性。状态评价对影响设备健康状态的各类工况数据以及设备可靠性的定量分析,按照预定的量化标准对各类数据进行分析,并求解设备当前及未来的健康指数、故障发生概率。状态评价可为设备资产的更换、维修、技术改造以及新设备规划等决策提供科学的指导依据,其主要作用在于辅助资产的可靠性管理、设备检修维护资源的合理安排及投资规划。风险评估分析设备故障发生概率和故障后果的处理情况,从电网性能、修复成本、人身安全、环境影响等方面计算电力企业所关心的各种风险值。风险评估不局限于对设备可靠性、检修资源的管理,还上升到电网风险管理的高度,为企业的资产管理和长远投资规划提供决策依据。实例分析表明,经状态评价与风险评估后的状态检修方法可量化设备健康指数、故障概率及风险值,指导变电设备的更换、改造、运行与检修试验等工作,具有工程应用价值。
[Abstract]:The state evaluation model based on equipment safety and economy is studied, and the risk value of a single equipment is calculated according to the risk assessment model, which provides a scientific basis for carrying out condition maintenance of substation equipment and provides auxiliary decision information for power grid operation. In view of the hidden trouble caused by the factors such as manufacturing technology, scientific and technological level, operation loss and extended service, the strategy of condition-based maintenance is formulated, in which the state evaluation model and risk assessment model consider safety and reliability comprehensively. Environment, cost and other factors can avoid such safety risks, and improve the reliability of power supply and operation and maintenance economy. Based on the quantitative analysis of all kinds of working condition data and equipment reliability which affect the equipment's health state, the data are analyzed according to the predetermined quantization standard, and the current and future health index of the equipment and the probability of failure are solved. State evaluation can provide scientific guidance for equipment assets replacement, maintenance, technical transformation and new equipment planning, and its main role is to assist the reliability management of assets. Reasonable arrangement and investment planning of equipment maintenance resources. The risk assessment analyzes the probability of equipment failure and the treatment of fault consequences, and calculates the various risk values concerned by electric power enterprises from the aspects of power network performance, repair cost, personal safety, environmental impact and so on. Risk assessment is not limited to the management of equipment reliability and maintenance resources, but also rises to the height of grid risk management, which provides the decision basis for enterprise's asset management and long-term investment planning. The analysis of examples shows that the condition based maintenance method after condition evaluation and risk assessment can quantify equipment health index, failure probability and risk value, guide the replacement, transformation, operation and maintenance test of substation equipment, and have engineering application value.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TM73

【参考文献】