考虑光伏出力相关性的配电网概率潮流

发布时间：2018-05-15 02:43

本文选题：Nataf变换 + 光伏　；参考：《电力系统自动化》2015年09期

【摘要】：分布式光伏发电出力随机性强,且同一区域内的光伏出力相关性显著。考虑光伏接入的配电网概率潮流研究,关键在于相关非正态的光伏输入随机变量的处理。采用Nataf变换进行相关非正态输入随机变量的抽样,并与点估计方法相结合,提出了考虑光伏出力相关性的配电网概率潮流计算方法。与传统处理相关问题的正交变换相比,Nataf变换能够反映相关系数在不同变量空间中的变化,因此,在处理相关非正态随机变量方面,Nataf变换比正交变换法更为精确。通过对含有分布式光伏发电的IEEE 33节点算例系统的计算,验证了Nataf变换的优越性。进一步,分析了不同光照强度相关系数、负荷功率波动大小以及估计点个数对概率潮流计算结果精度的灵敏度。
[Abstract]:Distributed photovoltaic power generation has strong randomness, and the correlation of photovoltaic output in the same area is significant. In the study of probabilistic power flow of distribution network considering photovoltaic access, the key lies in the processing of correlated non-normal photovoltaic input random variables. The Nataf transform is used to sample the correlated non-normal input random variables, and combined with the point estimation method, the probabilistic power flow calculation method of distribution network considering the correlation of photovoltaic force is proposed. Compared with the traditional orthogonal transformation which deals with related problems, Nataf transform can reflect the change of correlation coefficient in different variable space, so the Nataf transform is more accurate than the orthogonal transformation method in dealing with correlated non-normal random variables. The advantages of Nataf transform are verified by the calculation of IEEE 33 node system with distributed photovoltaic power generation. Furthermore, the sensitivity of different light intensity correlation coefficients, load power fluctuation and the number of estimated points to the accuracy of probabilistic power flow calculation is analyzed.
【作者单位】：清华大学电机工程与应用电子技术系;电力系统及发电设备控制和仿真国家重点实验室清华大学;
【基金】：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)资助项目(2013CB228203) 黔科合重大专项(〔2012〕6022)~~
【分类号】：TM615;TM744

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