风电工程全寿命期风险管理模型及信息系统研究

发布时间：2018-05-18 12:32

本文选题：风电工程 + 全寿命期　；参考：《华北电力大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：风电日趋成为改变能源消费结构的主角,其产业取得了长足发展,但如同任何一个行业一样,风电行业为风力发电企业带来机遇的同时也酝酿着巨大的未确知风险。对于风电企业来讲,一个标准的风电工程全寿命期包括前期、基建期、生产运行维护期,风险存在于各个阶段中且在各阶段中进行传递,一个阶段中的风险元则可能会造成另一个阶段的损失。目前,风电工程风险是制约我国现阶段风电产业发展至关重要的因素,风电工程全寿命期的风险管理理论体系尚缺乏成熟,未能对风电开发项目实施进行行之有效的指导。因此,开展风电工程全寿命期风险管理研究成为突破风电开发关键点的当务之急,也是实现我国风电产业良性发展的不可或缺的条件。论文针对风电工程风险管理问题,以风电工程全寿命期为路线,将风险元传递理论应用其中,通过构建风电工程前期风险元传递模型、风电工程基建期风险元传递均衡优化模型、风电工程运维期风险管理模型,并提出风电工程全寿命期风险管理信息系统的建设方案,旨在探讨风电工程前期、基建期、运维期的风险管理体系,以便为风电工程管理者决策提供参考依据,使得风电工程的风险可以得到控制,进而保证项目的顺利实施和项目目标的实现。 (1)风电工程全寿命期风险管理理论及其产业发展分析。在阐述风险基本理论、风险元传递理论的基础上提出了风电工程全寿命期风险管理的结构模型,结合相关调研资料、文献资料、行业研究报告、统计数据、相关政策和法规等,采用定性方法,识别并分析了影响中国风电产业可持续发展的SWOT因素,分析了产业可持续发展背景下风电工程风险元的特点。 (2)构建了风电工程前期风险管理模型。根据风电工程前期风险元的特点,分析了风险元的分布情况,在此基础上提出了风电工程前期风险元传递的结构,构建了风电工程前期基于RBF神经网络型风险元传递模型,并进行了算例仿真,测试结果表明所建立的风险元传递模型具有正确性和可行性,为风电工程前期风险管理者提供决策依据,也为后续有关风电工程基建期和运维期的风险管理研究提供了前提条件。 (3)构建了风电工程基建期风险管理模型。在分析风电工程基建期工期-成本-质量风险特点的基础上,构建了风电工程工期-成本-质量风险元传递均衡优化模型,确定了决策变量和目标函数,提出了模型求解的模拟退火粒子群算法原理和计算步骤,以一个风电工程为例,用MATLAB编写程序对该模型进行求解得到Pareto解,并生成三维与二维pareto图像,不仅验证了风电工程工期-成本-质量风险元传递均衡优化模型的可行性,还为风电工程基建期管理者提供了有效的决策依据。 (4)构建了风电工程运维期风险管理模型。建立了基于OWA算子的风能利用的环境影响模型,最后通过算例分析验证了模型的科学性和有效性,并且为风电场的风险管理提出了具有针对性的改进措施；在综合考虑微电网的可靠性、微电网运行耗损费用、维护费用、扩展方案总费用等基础上,建立了微电网中风力-火电联合发电的风险管理模型,利用和声搜索算法模拟了一个5节点的微电网系统在10年内的电源规划扩展方案,模拟结果表明该模型具有可行性和有效性。 (5)提出了风电工程全寿命期RMIS的建设与实施方案,对风电工程全寿命期RMIS进行了用户需求分析、风险业务流程分析、数据流程分析,对风电工程全寿命期RMIS进行了总体设计、网络应用模式设计、功能模块结构设计、数据表结构设计；进行了基于Hadoop的RMIS与SCADA系统集成设计,基于SOA的计算模型集成设计；对系统实施的成功因素进行了分析,提出了系统实施的8个步骤；最后,实现了风电工程全寿命期RMIS。为整个风电工程RMIS的顺利实施提供了解决方案,增强了风电工程全寿命期风险管理理论的实用性,提供了全寿命期风险管理的信息化平台。
[Abstract]:Wind power has become the leading role in changing the energy consumption structure, and its industry has made great progress, but like any industry, wind power industry brings opportunities to wind power enterprises as well as huge Unascertained Risk. For wind power enterprises, a standard wind power life span period includes the early period, the infrastructure period, and the life period. During the operation and maintenance period, the risk exists in every stage and is transmitted in various stages, and the risk element in one stage may cause the loss of another stage. At present, the risk of wind power engineering is the most important factor restricting the development of the current wind power industry in China, and the risk management theory system of the whole life period of the wind power project is still lacking. Mature, failure to carry out effective guidance on the implementation of wind power development projects. Therefore, it is an urgent task to carry out the risk management research of wind power life life period. It is also an indispensable condition to realize the benign development of wind power industry in China.
In view of the risk management of wind power project, the risk element transfer theory is applied in the whole life period of wind power engineering, the risk element transfer model of wind power project is constructed, the risk element transfer model of wind power project is transferred in the base period, the risk management model of wind power engineering operation and maintenance period, and the whole life period of wind power project is put forward. The construction plan of the risk management information system aims to discuss the risk management system in the early stage of the wind power project, the construction period and the operation and maintenance period, so as to provide the reference basis for the decision making of the wind power project manager, and make the risk of the wind power project be controlled, thus ensuring the smooth implementation of the project and the realization of the project goal.
(1) the risk management theory and industry development analysis of the whole life period of wind power project. Based on the basic theory of risk and the theory of risk element transfer, the structure model of the risk management of the whole life period of wind power project is put forward, which combines related research data, literature, Industry Research Report, statistical data, related policies and regulations and so on. Methods identify and analyze the SWOT factors that affect the sustainable development of China's wind power industry, and analyze the characteristics of risk elements of wind power projects under the background of industrial sustainable development.
(2) the early risk management model of wind power project is built. According to the characteristics of the early risk element of the wind power project, the distribution of risk element is analyzed. On this basis, the structure of the risk element transfer in the early stage of the wind power project is put forward, and the risk element transfer model based on the RBF neural network in the early stage of the wind power project is constructed, and the example simulation is carried out and the test is tested. The results show that the established risk element transfer model is correct and feasible, provides the decision basis for the early risk managers of the wind power project, and provides the precondition for the follow-up research on risk management in the construction period of wind power project and the operation and maintenance period.
(3) the risk management model of the construction period of wind power project is constructed. On the basis of analyzing the characteristics of the period cost quality risk of the wind power project, a time cost mass risk element transfer equilibrium optimization model for wind power project is constructed, the decision variables and the target functions are determined, and the principle of simulated annealing particle swarm optimization (PSO) is proposed and the model is solved. The calculation step, taking a wind power project as an example, uses the MATLAB program to solve the model to get the Pareto solution, and generates three-dimensional and two-dimensional Pareto images. It not only validates the feasibility of the wind power project time cost mass risk element transfer equilibrium optimization model, but also provides effective decision-making basis for the managers of the wind power engineering construction period.
(4) the risk management model of wind power project operation and maintenance period is constructed. The environmental impact model of wind energy utilization based on OWA operator is established. Finally, the scientificity and effectiveness of the model are verified by an example analysis, and the targeted improvement measures are put forward for the risk management of the wind farm. The reliability of the microgrid and the micro grid are taken into consideration. The risk management model of wind power combined power generation in microgrid is set up on the basis of running cost, maintenance cost and total project cost, and a power planning extension scheme for a 5 node microgrid system in 10 years is simulated by harmonic search algorithm. The simulation results show the feasibility and effectiveness of the model.
(5) the construction and implementation plan of the whole life period RMIS of wind power project is put forward. The user demand analysis, the risk business process analysis, the data flow analysis are carried out for the whole life period RMIS of the wind power project, and the whole life period RMIS of the wind power project is designed, the network application mode design, the function module structure design, the data sheet structure design; The integrated design of RMIS and SCADA system based on Hadoop, integrated design of calculation model based on SOA, analysis of the successful factors of the system implementation, and 8 steps of the system implementation are put forward. Finally, the whole life period RMIS. of the wind power project has been realized to provide a solution for the smooth implementation of the whole wind power engineering RMIS, and the wind electrician has been strengthened. The practicality of Cheng Quan's life cycle risk management theory provides an information platform for life cycle risk management.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TP315;F426.61;F272.3;F284

【参考文献】