基于社会公共安全模型的大停电社会损失评估

发布时间：2018-05-19 19:23

本文选题：社会公共安全 + 大停电事故　；参考：《华北电力大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：电力产业是关系到社会民生的一个基础能源产业,人民的生产生活对电力有高度的依赖性。大停电事故将会引起道路瘫痪、旅客滞留以及通信中断等情况,很容易在居民中产生大规模恐慌情绪,进而导致社会秩序陷入混乱,将给社会带来不可估量的损失。随着社会经济的不断发展和人民生活需求的不断提高,电网规模也随之不断扩大,近几年国外的大停电事故的频繁发生,直接影响了国民经济发展,不仅威胁着人民生命财产安全,同时对整个社会的安全稳定带来了巨大的隐患。本文首先对课题的研究背景和意义进行了阐述,论证了可靠的电力供应对社会公共安全的重要性,电网安全关系到社会安全,维系着社会稳定,是社会公共安全的基础。然后结合我国电网发展的实际情况,分析社会公共安全模型,并在此模型的基础上提出大停电社会损失评价指标,研究适合各个评价指标的具体评估方法,从而得到评估模型。对权威机构统计的社会公共安全相关计算参数进行整理,对实际计算所需要的参数进行理论分析和取值优化,得到更符合实际情况的计算参数。最后结合我国典型电网的运行参数和社会公共安全情况,将本文提出的理论应用到实际电网中,进行大停电社会损失评估,与国外的大停电损失统计结果相对比,验证了评估模型的科学性、有效性。
[Abstract]:The power industry is a basic energy industry related to the livelihood of the society. The people's production and life are highly dependent on the electricity. The blackout accident will cause the paralysis of the road, the detention of the passengers and the interruption of communication. It is easy to create a large scale of panic among the residents, which will lead to the chaos of the social order and will bring the society to the society. With the continuous development of the social economy and the continuous improvement of the people's living demand, the scale of the power grid has also been expanding. In recent years, the frequent outage accidents in foreign countries have directly affected the development of the national economy, which not only threatens the safety of the people's life and property, but also brings the security and stability of the whole society. A great hidden danger.
This paper first expounds the background and significance of the research, demonstrates the importance of the reliable power supply to the social and public security, the security of the power grid is related to the social security, the stability of the society, the foundation of the social security, and then the analysis of the social security model based on the actual situation of the development of China's power grid and the analysis of the social security model. On the basis of the model, it puts forward the evaluation index of the social loss of large power outage, and studies the specific evaluation methods suitable for each evaluation index, and then gets the evaluation model. It collate the relevant calculation parameters of the social public safety statistics of the authoritative organization, and theoretically analyze and optimize the parameters needed in the actual calculation, and get more actual situation. In the end, combined with the operating parameters of the typical power grid in China and the situation of social and public safety, the theory proposed in this paper is applied to the actual power grid to evaluate the social loss of large power outage, and compared with the statistical results of large blackout losses abroad, which proves the scientificity and effectiveness of the evaluation model.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TM73

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