含大规模新能源发电的电力系统可靠性分析

发布时间：2018-05-23 07:50

本文选题：新能源发电 + 可靠性评估　；参考：《燕山大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：新能源发电的大规模利用是当今世界电力系统发展的趋势，合理利用新能源将起到缓解能源紧缺、遏制环境污染、改善人民生活水平的作用。但不容忽视的是新能源发电具有一次能源不可控、输出功率不稳定的特点，有必要研究其在电网中渗透率较高时对电网安全稳定运行的影响，本文主要从供电可靠性的角度进行了研究。本文首先建立了新能源发电的可靠性模型，提出了基于支持向量机的时序数据滚动预测模型，用于获得一次能源的电能转换参数。利用风电场及光伏电站的功率输出模型，可计算实时的功率输出数据。此外，还介绍了用于可靠性分析的系统组件停运模型。然后，从传统的状态空间选择方法入手，综合考虑故障重数截止法与蒙特卡罗模拟法的优缺点，建立了基于这两种方法的系统状态混合抽样法。通过仿真结果验证了该方法可以在满足仿真精度要求的前提下大幅度降低可靠性评估的时间，有利于提高电力系统可靠性评估的效率。接着，分析了抽样后的系统状态，利用图论中邻接矩阵的特性判定系统结构，，达到明确故障后系统组成的目的。在此基础上引入了基于潮流跟踪的新能源发电影响因子，并考虑到常规机组爬坡率与新能源利用率的约束，改进了传统的切负荷模型。通过仿真验证了改进后最优切负荷模型的有效性，在研究新能源的背景下，该模型更符合实际情况且具有优化系统可靠性的效果。最后，制定了可靠性评估指标体系，明确了可靠性评估的流程，以某区域实际电网为仿真对象，在其中不同位置加入不同类型不同容量的新能源电源，分析了不同情况下的仿真结果。对大规模新能源并网后的系统可靠性变化有了较为全面的了解，并得到了关于提高系统可靠性、新能源电源选址定容、改善系统薄弱环节的若干结论。
[Abstract]:The large-scale utilization of new energy power generation is the trend of the development of power system in the world. Rational utilization of new energy will alleviate the energy shortage, curb environmental pollution and improve the people's living standard. However, it can not be ignored that new energy generation has the characteristics of uncontrollable primary energy and unstable output power. It is necessary to study the influence of high permeability in power grid on the safe and stable operation of power grid. This paper mainly studies the reliability of power supply. In this paper, the reliability model of new energy generation is established, and the rolling prediction model of time series data based on support vector machine (SVM) is proposed, which can be used to obtain the energy conversion parameters of primary energy. Using the power output model of wind farm and photovoltaic power station, real-time power output data can be calculated. In addition, the system component outage model for reliability analysis is also introduced. Then, starting with the traditional state space selection method and considering the advantages and disadvantages of fault multiplicity cutoff method and Monte Carlo simulation method, a system state mixed sampling method based on these two methods is established. The simulation results show that the proposed method can greatly reduce the time of reliability evaluation and improve the efficiency of reliability evaluation of power system on the premise of satisfying the requirement of simulation accuracy. Then, the state of the system after sampling is analyzed, and the structure of the system is determined by the characteristics of the adjacent matrix in graph theory, so as to make clear the composition of the system after the fault. Based on this, the influence factors of new energy generation based on power flow tracking are introduced, and the traditional load shedding model is improved considering the constraints of slope climbing rate and new energy utilization ratio of conventional units. The effectiveness of the improved optimal load shedding model is verified by simulation. Under the background of new energy research, the model is more suitable to the actual situation and has the effect of optimizing system reliability. Finally, the reliability evaluation index system is established, and the process of reliability evaluation is clarified. Taking the actual power grid in a certain area as the simulation object, different types of new energy sources with different capacities are added in different locations. The simulation results under different conditions are analyzed. This paper gives a comprehensive understanding of the system reliability changes after the large-scale new energy is connected to the grid, and obtains some conclusions on improving the system reliability, the location and capacity of the new energy source, and the weak links of the system.
【学位授予单位】：燕山大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TM732

【参考文献】