含TCSC的电网运行风险评估和优化调度模型研究

发布时间：2018-06-08 08:14

本文选题：TCSC + 可靠性框图　；参考：《重庆大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文依托国家自然科学基金资助项目“柔性发输电系统概率风险评估和优化配置模型研究”(项目号：50977094)和重庆市科委自然科学基金资助项目“计及柔性发输电设备的电网可靠性评估模型研究”(项目号：CSTC,2011BB6047）进行研究工作。运行风险评估是一个短期可靠性评估过程，由于其评估周期较短，元件所处的外界环境和运行条件变化将影响元件可靠性水平，采用传统可靠性评估中的统计平均参数值不能准确评估时变运行条件下的系统运行风险。因此，在进行电网运行风险评估时有必要正确处理实时条件与元件运行可靠性的关系，即实时条件下的元件运行可靠性的建模。可控串联电容补偿（TCSC）通过输电网络参数调节实现潮流控制，能够改变电网运行条件，对系统中其他电力元件以及自身可靠性产生影响，因此，对TCSC运行可靠性模型展开研究，有利于分析TCSC对电网运行风险的影响。电网运行风险评估是基于一定的调度运行方式进行的，然而调度运行方式的变化将对电网运行可靠性产生影响，同时，在制定发电调度方案时，不能忽略电网运行风险引起的经济代价，即发电调度优化和运行风险评估时一个相互制约的过程，调度运行方式决定系统风险水平，运行风险指标指导发电调度决策。正确处理二者的关系，计及运行风险的发电优化调度是一个亟需深入研究的重要课题。因此，本文基于运行风险理论，对TCSC运行可靠性模型展开研究，构建了含TCSC电网的运行风险评估模型，探索了负荷随机波动、元件老化、气温变化以及TCSC对系统运行可靠性的影响。将电网运行风险理论和优化调度理论相结合，构建了基于条件相关运行风险的发电优化调度模型，实现了电网运行风险和调度方式之间的协调控制。本文的主要工作内容如下： ①对TCSC结构和故障模式进行分析，构建了TCSC及其子模块的可靠性框图，计及部件冗余配置讨论了TCSC子模块以及其内部部件的可靠性。 ②深入分析了TCSC的电抗随电流而变化的运行特性，基于此提出了一种计及TCSC视在电抗约束的线路可靠性模型。针对实时运行条件下故障率参数的时变特性，应用马尔可夫理论推导了TCSC核心部件以及整个线路的状态概率计算公式，并基于运行风险理论建立了条件相关的故障率模型。该模型定量考虑了负荷随机波动、元件老化以及气温变化对元件可靠性的影响。 ③综合考虑实时运行条件对元件和电网运行可靠性的影响，构建了基于条件相关运行风险的发电优化调度模型。将条件相关的运行风险评估与发电调度优化相结合，采用统一的货币形式量化发电机调度成本和风险代价，以期望总成本最小为目标函数，在满足正常和故障状态对应安全约束条件下寻求最优调度方案。同时，计及了旋转备用响应特性以及TCSC对电网运行风险的影响，，将机组输出功率再调整允许范围和TCSC补偿范围增至约束集中。该模型综合考虑了负荷水平、实时调度运行方式、潮流分布和运行风险的相互影响，实现了电网运行风险和发电成本均衡协调的最优调度决策。 ④采用Matlab对RBTS可靠性测试系统进行计算分析，验证了本文所提模型的有效性和正确性。计算了不同负荷水平、元件等效服役时间以及气候条件下的电网运行风险指标，并详细分析了TCSC对系统运行可靠性的影响。采用遗传禁忌混合算法得到了不同调度时刻不同运行条件下的最优调度运行方案以及该时刻下的运行风险指标。
[Abstract]:This paper is based on the research work of project No . 50977094 and the Research on Reliability Assessment Model of Flexible Transmission Equipment ( Project No . : CSTC , 2011BB6047 ) funded by the National Natural Science Foundation Grant Project " Flexible Transmission and Transmission System Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Optimization Configuration Model Research " ( Project No . 50977094 ) and Chongqing Science and Commission Natural Science Foundation Grant Project .

The operation risk assessment is a short - term reliability evaluation process , because the evaluation period is short , the external environment and operating condition change of the element will affect the reliability level of the element . Therefore , it is necessary to deal with the relationship between the real - time condition and the operation reliability of the element in real time by adopting the statistical average parameter value in the traditional reliability evaluation .

The operation risk assessment of power grid is based on a certain scheduling operation mode , however , the change of scheduling operation mode will affect the operation reliability of the power grid . At the same time , when the power generation scheduling scheme is developed , the economic cost caused by the operation risk of the power grid cannot be neglected , that is , the power generation scheduling optimization and the operation risk evaluation are mutually restricted , the operation mode decides the system risk level , and the operation risk index is used to guide the power generation dispatching decision .

Therefore , based on the operational risk theory , this paper studies the operation reliability model of TCSC , constructs a model of operation risk assessment of TCSC power grid , and explores the influence of load stochastic fluctuation , element aging , temperature change and TCSC on system operation reliability .

The reliability of TCSC and its sub - modules is discussed , and the reliability of TCSC sub - module and its internal components is discussed .

In this paper , the operating characteristics of TCSC are analyzed in detail . Based on this , a line reliability model of TCSC is presented . Based on the time - varying characteristics of failure rate parameters under real - time operating conditions , the state probability formula of TCSC core components and the whole line is deduced by using Markov theory . The fault rate model is established based on the theory of operational risk .

( 3 ) Considering the influence of real - time operating conditions on the operation reliability of the element and power grid , a power generation optimization scheduling model based on the condition - related operation risk is constructed .

In this paper , the reliability test system of RBTS is calculated and analyzed by Matlab . The validity and validity of the proposed model are verified . The influence of different load level , component equivalent service time and grid operation risk under climate conditions is calculated , and the influence of TCSC on the running reliability of the system is analyzed in detail .
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TM73

【参考文献】