中国电力行业景气指数的构建及波动分析

发布时间：2018-06-16 05:26

本文选题：电力行业 + 景气指数　；参考：《安徽大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：电力行业在国民经济中有着基础能源产业的地位,在国民经济中发挥至关重要的地位,与宏观经济之间存在某种密切关系。电力行业对宏观经济周期波动的反映相当灵敏,其发展态势与宏观经济的运行态势具有一致性。因此,构建电力行业景气指数,研究电力行业的景气波动特征和宏观经济波动的关系,对实时监测电力行业发展,准确把握电力行业运行态势,有效预测电力行业发展趋势,制定行之有效的产业政策等方面都具有十分重要的现实意义。本文选取2006年1月至2013年12月间同电力行业的相关月度数据,如发电量、火力发电量、全社会用电量、粗钢产量、重工业增加值和电力生产主营业务收入等六项增长率指标,采用X-11季节调整法对这些指标进行数据处理,剔除季节性因素和不规则因素,然后通过时差相关分析方法选取电力行业的一致指标组,并利用中国经济景气监测系统构建电力行业景气波动和宏观经济波动的一致合成指数,分析电力行业景气波动、宏观经济波动以及二者时差关系,以期为相关部门提出有益于电力行业发展的积极建议。全文共分六个章节,第一章为引言部分,主要介绍论文研究意义和目的以及国内外相关研究的发展趋势,介绍本文研究的主要内容、研究思路和方法,第二章是对我国电力行业现状进行介绍和分析,主要从电力行业的生产、消费、投资、经营和相关行业等方面展开；第三章是构建我国电力行业景气指数,主要分为两个部分,第一部分是景气分析的相关理论基础知识,第二部分是通过对数据时间序列处理和分类,选取我国电力行业景气一致指标组和构建一致合成指数；第四章重点分析我国电力行业景气波动特征和宏观经济波动周期性特征,总结二者之间的时差关系；第五章在前面分析的基础上,得到电力行业受宏观经济波动影响的结论,进而为电力行业发展提出一些积极的建议；第六章是关于本文存在的不足之处,主要是论文数据存在缺陷和问题研究有待深入探究。
[Abstract]:The power industry has the status of the basic energy industry in the national economy, plays a vital role in the national economy, and has a certain close relationship with the macro-economy. The power industry is sensitive to the macroeconomic cycle fluctuation, and its development situation is consistent with the macroeconomic operation situation. The industry boom index, the study of the relationship between the characteristics of the boom and the macroeconomic fluctuations in the power industry, is of great practical significance to the real time monitoring of the development of the power industry, the accurate grasp of the operation situation of the power industry, the effective prediction of the development trend of the power industry and the formulation of effective industrial policies.
In this paper, the monthly data related to the electric power industry from January 2006 to December 2013, such as electricity generation, thermal power generation, total social electricity consumption, crude steel production, heavy industrial added value and the main business income of power production, are selected for six growth rates, and the seasonal factors are eliminated by the X-11 seasonal adjustment method. The unanimous factor of the electric power industry is selected by the time difference correlation analysis method, and the Chinese economic boom monitoring system is used to construct the consistent synthetic index of the prosperity fluctuation and macroeconomic fluctuation in the electric power industry, and the power industry boom fluctuation, the macroeconomic wave movement and the two time difference relationship are analyzed in order to provide the relevant departments for the relevant departments. A positive suggestion that is beneficial to the development of the power industry.
The full text is divided into six chapters. The first chapter is the introduction part, which mainly introduces the significance and purpose of the research and the development trend of relevant research at home and abroad, introduces the main contents of this study, the research ideas and methods. The second chapter introduces and analyzes the current situation of the power industry in China, mainly from the production, consumption, investment, and economy of the electric power industry. The third chapter is to build the prosperity index of China's power industry, which is divided into two parts. The first part is the related theoretical knowledge of the economic analysis. The second part is to select the consistent index group and the construction of the consensus index by processing and classifying the time series of the data. The fourth chapter focuses on the analysis of the characteristics of China's electric power industry and the cyclical characteristics of macroeconomic fluctuations, and summarizes the time difference relationship between the two. On the basis of the previous analysis, the fifth chapter draws the conclusion that the power industry is affected by the macroeconomic fluctuations, and then puts forward some positive suggestions for the development of the power industry; the sixth chapter is about the development of the electric power industry. The shortcomings of this paper are mainly the defects and problems of the paper data.
【学位授予单位】：安徽大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.61;F402.4

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