区域电网运营监测中的电力经济预测系统研究

发布时间：2018-07-06 08:50

本文选题：电力经济预测 + 预测模型　；参考：《天津大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：针对国家电网公司在2013年5月正式启动建设区域电网运营监测中心的实际预测需求，开发一套具有改进预测模型的电网运营监测电力经济预测系统，对于提升运营监测中心的业务监控能力，开拓运营监测数据应用功能，持续开展信息管理系统深化使用，全面提高电网运营管理水平，不断提高社会和经济效益等方面，具有重要的理论价值和实际意义。本文论述了电力经济预测的有关研究背景、相关进展，，介绍了新形势下区域电网运营监测中心的建立状况以及预测需求，研究给出了区域电网运营监测中的电力经济预测指标，分析了现有预测模型的状况，针对实际需要，改进建立了基于灰色关联度的中长期电力经济综合优选预测模型和神经----灰色递阶转换短期电力经济智能预测模型，并在实证中取得了较好的预测效果。本文进行了电力经济预测系统的系统设计、数学模型的计算机语言实现以及各功能模块的具体开发，按照电网运营监测中心的要求对系统进行设计、开发，在实现基本功能基础上努力方便用户使用，提供了可靠完善的各项功能。对预测软件系统进行了运行和测试，并已针对某区域电网进行了实际试用，使系统可以在实际中使用，具有较好的实用性和可操作性。从而完成了区域电网运营监测电力经济预测系统的全部开发。对全文的研究进行了总结，分析了存在的问题并提出了改进建议。
[Abstract]:In view of the actual forecasting demand of the State Grid Company to build a regional power network operation monitoring center in May 2013, a power economic forecasting system for power network operation monitoring with an improved forecasting model is developed. For improving the business monitoring ability of the operation monitoring center, developing the application function of the operation monitoring data, continuing to deepen the use of the information management system, comprehensively improving the power network operation and management level, continuously improving the social and economic benefits, etc. It has important theoretical value and practical significance. This paper discusses the research background and development of electric power economic forecasting, introduces the establishment of regional power network operation monitoring center and its forecasting demand under the new situation, and gives the power economic forecast indexes in the regional power network operation monitoring. This paper analyzes the status of existing forecasting models, and improves and establishes the model of comprehensive optimal selection and prediction of medium and long term electric power economy based on grey correlation degree and the intelligent forecasting model of short-term power economy with neural grey hierarchical conversion. And in the empirical results obtained better prediction results. This paper has carried on the system design of the electric power economy forecast system, the computer language realization of the mathematical model and the concrete development of each function module, has carried on the design, the development according to the power network operation monitoring center request, On the basis of realizing basic functions, it is easy for users to use and provides reliable and perfect functions. The prediction software system has been run and tested, and has been tried out for a regional power network. The system can be used in practice and has good practicability and maneuverability. Thus, the development of regional power network operation monitoring power economic forecasting system is completed. This paper summarizes the research, analyzes the existing problems and puts forward some suggestions for improvement.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TP311.52;F426.61

【参考文献】